Robredo-Tulfo, Duterte-Marcos in statistical dead heat for 2028, OCTA survey shows

Abi Sarabia M., Philippine Canadian Inquirer
August 13, 2026

Photo courtesy: Philippine News Agency

A survey by OCTA Research has found that a hypothetical presidential tandem of former Vice President Leni Robredo and Senator Raffy Tulfo is statistically tied with a tandem of Vice President Sara Duterte and Senator Imee Marcos among Filipino voters looking ahead to the 2028 national elections.

The OCTA Research “Tugon ng Masa” survey found that 45 percent of respondents favored a Robredo-Tulfo tandem, while 42 percent favored a Duterte-Marcos pairing, for the positions of president and vice president, respectively.

OCTA Research said the three-point gap falls within the survey’s 3 percent margin of error, making the results a statistical dead heat.

Robredo, who lost the 2022 vice presidential race, is now serving as mayor of Naga City. Duterte currently sits as vice president under the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

The survey showed sharp regional divides in voter preference.

In the National Capital Region, 56 percent of respondents favored the Robredo-Tulfo tandem, compared with 22 percent for Duterte-Marcos.

In Balance Luzon, support for Robredo-Tulfo rose to 61 percent, against 23 percent for Duterte-Marcos.

In the Visayas, the two tandems were tied, each drawing 45 percent support.

The Duterte-Marcos tandem held a commanding lead in Mindanao, where it received 90 percent support compared with just 5 percent for Robredo-Tulfo.

The survey also found that 8 percent of respondents said they would not vote for either tandem, while 4 percent remained undecided and 1 percent declined to answer.

OCTA Research conducted the survey from July 4 to July 11, 2026, polling 1,200 adult respondents nationwide.

Neither the Robredo-Tulfo nor the Duterte-Marcos camps have formally declared a joint ticket for the 2028 elections, and OCTA’s findings reflect hypothetical pairings rather than confirmed candidacies. 

Any formal announcements on 2028 tickets are expected closer to the official filing period for candidacy.