Polls suggest fiscal restraint not denting Manitoba Tory popularity

FILE: Premier Brian Pallister (Photo By Andrew Scheer, CC0)

WINNIPEG — Two opinion polls released this week suggest Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister continues to enjoy strong voter support halfway through his current mandate and despite controversies over health care cuts and his vacation home in Costa Rica.

A survey released Friday by Mainstreet Research suggested Pallister’s Progressive Conservatives had the support of 45 per cent of decided or leaning voters, compared to 30 per cent for the NDP and 13 per cent for the Liberals. Fourteen per cent of respondents were undecided or would not state a preference.

The numbers are similar to a poll released Monday by Probe Research, which pegged Tory support at 44 per cent of decided or leaning voters, the NDP at 28 per cent and the Liberals at 19. Probe says 23 per cent of respondents were undecided or would not state a preference.

The Tory numbers are down only slightly from the party’s election victory in 2016, when the Tories won the largest majority in Manitoba in a century.

Paul Thomas, professor emeritus of political studies at the University of Manitoba, said one reason is that many voters are not paying attention to politics this far out from the next election in 2020. He also said the opposition parties are still trying to get voters to warm to their new leaders.

“Even though (Pallister) has had some awkward moments and has taken some shots from the opposition in the legislature and criticism in the media, it doesn’t seem to have put a huge dent in his leadership appeal,” Thomas said.

Elected on a promise to cut taxes and end a string of deficits, the Tories are closing three of the six emergency departments in Winnipeg hospitals. Pallister has also faced controversy over the amount of time he spends in Costa Rica, and is facing legal challenges from public sector unions over a wage freeze.

But the opposition parties are facing challenges of their own. NDP Leader Wab Kinew has been dogged by past criminal convictions, as wells as homophobic and misogynistic lyrics as a rapper. More recently, he has faced revelations that he was accused in 2003 of domestic assault — an accusation that was stayed by the court but which his former girlfriend maintains.

“I think those are still issues that the party is just trying to struggle their way through,” said Kelly Saunders, associate professor of political science at Brandon University.

The Liberals are working to get on strong financial footing and to get their leader, Dougald Lamont, a seat in the legislature in an upcoming byelection.

The opposition parties are also facing major challenges in the lead-up to the next election, Thomas said. The Tories have much more money for campaign ads and are planning to cut the provincial sales tax by one point in the 2020 budget — a move that will force the other parties to either oppose the tax cut or vote for a government budget.

Both polls suggest support for the NDP in Winnipeg, home to more than half of the legislature seats, is up and is now very close to that of the Tories.

The Mainstreet poll involved 870 adults through interactive phone recordings between April 16 and 18. It is considered accurate within plus or minus 3.3 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

The Probe poll involved 2,000 people who took part in live telephone calls, some of whom also completed an online survey, between March 12 and April 13. It is considered accurate to within plus or minus 2.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20.