By Matthew Powell, University of Portsmouth; The Conversation
In particular, it’s worth highlighting the recent statement by the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, who announced on May 28 that Berlin would help Kyiv develop new long-range weapons that can hit targets in Russian territory. (File Photo by Tobias Koch via Friedrich Merz/Facebook)
The frontlines in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict have largely been bogged down, with little significant movement on either side. It was reported recently that Russian troops had only advanced about 25 miles in the eastern sector near Donetsk in one year, at a huge cost in terms of casualties. As a result, both sides have sought different ways of trying to gain a strategic advantage over their opponent.
Air power has long been a recognised way of restoring a degree of mobility to the battlefield. But in Ukraine, neither side has been able to achieve control of the air, thanks to the quality of their air defences. So instead, both sides are using drones for “tactical” (small-scale) effect.
At this point, it’s worth focusing on the three levels of warfare: tactical, operational and strategic. The chart below, taken from the US Military Review, illustrates how these levels work – operating as a “distinct hierarchy with marginally overlapping areas between the strategic and the operational, and between the tactical and the operational”.
The tactical level is where small actions are planned and executed. At the operational level, major operations and campaigns are planned with a view to achieving strategic objectives. The strategic level involves longer-term ways to achieve the overarching political objectives of a conflict.
Russia’s ability to deploy long-range missiles and longer-range drones (such as the Shahed 136) that can strike targets – both military and civilian – deep inside Ukraine, has given it a strategic advantage.
There are two strategic aims to these strikes. The first is to reduce Ukraine’s capacity to produce military equipment through its domestic industrial base. The second is to target urban areas and civilian populations to undermine public morale – although how effective this is has long been a matter for debate.
Advantage Russia
The prohibition on Ukraine using weapons supplied by its allies to strike targets in Russia has put it at a considerable disadvantage – meaning that Ukraine’s military has been unable to exploit these weapons’ full potential. So, Russia has been able to build a considerable military/industrial base without threat of attack.
But now, the decision to lift these restrictions by the UK, US and, most recently, Germany will allow Ukraine to attack a wider range of targets and create more strategic difficulties for Russian political and military leadership.
In particular, it’s worth highlighting the recent statement by the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, who announced on May 28 that Berlin would help Kyiv develop new long-range weapons that can hit targets in Russian territory.
To what extent Ukraine will be able to exploit this greater latitude to attack targets inside Russia remains to be seen. But the prospect of long-range missiles being used against its cities – the German Taurus missiles have a range of more than 500km – could give Ukraine a degree of leverage in any fresh peace talks.
The lifting of these restrictions is unlikely to make much difference on the ground for some time, though. While theoretically, Ukraine will be able to strike at some of Russia’s military production sites, Russia has dramatically overhauled its arms production capacity. Nato’s top US commander is reported to have recently told a Senate Armed Services Committee that Russia is “on track to build a stockpile three times greater than the United States and Europe combined”.
No restrictions – for now
It’s also worth noting that both the US and UK signalled their willingness to allow their long-range missiles to strike at missile launchers inside Russia late last year as a defensive measure – but on a limited scale and only using domestically produced weapons, in contrast to the attacks conducted by Russia.
What is different in the most recent announcement is the lifting of restrictions on what can be targeted with weapons provided by western allies, rather than those domestically produced by the Ukrainian defence industry. This is an extension of an initial lifting of restrictions in late 2024
by the US and UK, further broadening the targets that can be attacked.
But the relaxation of these restrictions could be reversed very quickly if Ukraine launches large-scale strikes against civilian populations – which could generate highly adverse publicity for Ukraine and the countries that supplied the weapons.
Russia’s targeting of Kyiv in recent weeks has been bitterly criticised by the US president, Donald Trump, who posted on his TruthSocial website recently: “[Vladimir Putin] has gone absolutely crazy. Needlessly killing a lot of people.”
But Kyiv’s allies will also be wary of how Russia may react. Russia has always threatened dire consequences if Ukraine uses western-supplied weapons to launch attacks within Russia.
Indeed, the political ramifications of the lifting of restrictions are likely to be more consequential than the military outcomes – for now, at least.
Matthew Powell, Teaching Fellow in Strategic and Air Power Studies, University of Portsmouth
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
