Raffy Tulfo, Robin Padilla, Alan Cayetano, Vico Sotto statistically tied in 2028 Senate poll – OCTA

ASM, Philippine Canadian Inquirer
October 19, 2026

Photo courtesy: Multiple Sources

MANILA, Philippines — Four political figures registered statistically overlapping voter preferences in an early survey for the 2028 senatorial elections, with Senators Raffy Tulfo, Robin Padilla, Alan Peter Cayetano, and Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto sharing the top four positions, according to the latest OCTA Research poll.

Results of the third-quarter 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey showed Tulfo receiving a 47% voting preference, followed by Padilla at 45%, Cayetano at 44%, and Sotto at 42%.

Although Tulfo recorded the highest percentage, OCTA emphasized that the four personalities were statistically tied within the first-to-fourth rank range, meaning their positions could not be definitively distinguished based on the survey results.

The nationwide poll was conducted from September 28 to October 4, 2026, ahead of the May 2028 national elections.

Other potential Senate candidates register notable voter preferences

Beyond the four statistically tied personalities, former Senator Grace Poe registered a 36% voting preference, followed by Senator Loren Legarda at 31%.

Other personalities included in the hypothetical senatorial survey were Makati City Mayor Abby Binay, actor and government official Mark Lapid, and Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero.

The results reflect the percentage of respondents who selected each personality from a list of prospective candidates rather than votes cast in an actual election.

The published figures were as follows:

Photo Courtesy: OCTA Research

OCTA explained that several prospective candidates had overlapping statistical rank ranges, particularly among those within or near the preliminary top 12.

The figures should therefore not be interpreted as definitive placements in the 2028 senatorial race.

Changes from previous survey

Compared with OCTA’s second-quarter 2026 poll, Padilla’s voting preference declined from 53.9% to 45%, while Tulfo’s figure remained relatively stable, moving from 47.4% to 47%.

Cayetano’s percentage shifted slightly from 45.4% to 44%, while Sotto maintained his previous 42% rating.

Poe’s voting preference decreased from 44.5% to 36%, while Legarda’s fell from 39% to 31%.

Former Senator Manny Pacquiao also registered a lower percentage, moving from 34.5% to 25%.

Meanwhile, Education Secretary Sonny Angara’s preference increased from 19.2% to 25%, while Escudero’s rose from 23.2% to 27%.

OCTA cautioned against drawing firm conclusions from the changes because the lists of personalities presented to respondents were not identical across the two survey periods

Survey reflects early voter preferences, not election predictions

The non-commissioned nationwide survey involved 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above who participated in face-to-face interviews.

Participants were asked whom they would likely vote for as senator if the May 2028 elections were held at the time of the survey. Each respondent could select up to 12 names.

The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

OCTA stressed that the findings represent voter sentiment only during the September 28 to October 4 fieldwork period and should not be treated as predictions of the 2028 election results.

The research firm also noted that political developments, candidate decisions, campaign activities, and changing public concerns could influence voter preferences before the next national elections.

The survey provides an early picture of public preferences nearly two years before the 2028 polls, with no final candidate lineup established at this stage.