Join the U.S.? No way, say most Canadians surveyed. But nearly a quarter may be open to it

Two recent surveys suggest most Canadians actually agree on something: that U.S. president-elect Donald Trump should keep his hands off Canada.

However, one survey found that a significant chunk of Canadians, nearly a quarter, were at least open to the idea. And another poll found about the same percentage of Americans were also supportive of a merge.

The polls conducted by Abacus Data and Angus Reid Institute  follow comments by Trump who has mused that Canada could be annexed by the U.S. and become the 51st state.

The Angus Reid poll conducted a survey of both Canadians and Americans. For one question, Canadians were asked how they would vote in a referendum on whether Canada should become part of the U.S.

That survey found just a small minority, one out of 10 Canadians surveyed, would support the idea of Canada joining the U.S., but that the vast majority, 90 per cent, were opposed.

The survey did find that some Americans are open to the idea of Canada joining the U.S.  While most Americans surveyed also didn’t support the idea of Canada becoming another state (49 per cent), at least a quarter of them said they were in favour.

Meanwhile, Abacus Data found more Canadians supportive of the idea of a merger than the Angus Reid poll.  Asked: Which of the following best describes your view about Canada becoming part of the United States?, seven in 10 Canadians said they were absolutely against the idea, according to Abacus Data.

But 24 per cent were at least open to exploring it. Only six percent said they were absolutely in favour of Canada becoming part of the U.S.

Merger idea more receptive among young people

Politics also played a part in who was in favour of the merger. Both polls found that Conservative party supporters were more likely to support a Canada-U.S. union.

Abacus Data found Conservative supporters are the most open to exploring the idea (25 per cent), almost twice as likely as Liberal supporters (13 per cent)

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Angus Reid found that NDP (99 per cent), Liberal (97 per cent) and Bloc  Québécois (95 per cent) voters were almost all opposed. Conservative voters stood apart, with 80 per cent saying they would oppose the merger, meaning 20 per cent supported a Canada-U.S. union.

By region, the vast majority of every province opposed the idea of Canada joining the U.S.

But Angus Reid data found the most support for that proposal in Alberta with 18 per cent of respondents agreeing Canada should join the U.S.

Abacus Data found that Quebec was the province with the highest proportion of respondents (77 per cent) saying they are absolutely against.

Offers of money also made little difference to Canadians, according to Angus Reid’s polling results. Asked if they would vote yes if Trump doled out some cash, 97 per cent said no to $20,000 and 92 per cent said no to $60,000.

It also found that one-third of Canadians surveyed believed Trump is serious about having Canada join the U.S. Three-in-five Canadians said they don’t trust Trump to hold his word that he wouldn’t use military force to make Canada part of the U.S, the Angus Reid poll found.

For those Americans who support the idea of a merger, more than three-quarters (77 per cent) said Canadians should choose if they want to join or not,  although one per cent did say the country should be taken by military force, according to Angus Reid.

The Angus Reid results were from an online survey conducted in both the U.S. and Canada from Jan. 10 to 13, 2025. In Canada,1,653 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum were sampled. In the U.S., 1,716 American adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum USA were sampled.

Although margins of error cannot be calculated for panel surveys, for comparison purposes only, a probability sample of a similar size in each country would carry a margin of error of +/-2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The Abacus Data survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from Jan. 9 to Jan. 14, 2025. A random sample of panellists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels.  The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

CBC News

This article is republished from RCI.