Business and Economy

SAAR housing starts declined from September’s 2022 high in October

Published

2 years ago

November 17, 2022

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 21,821 units. (File Photo: Tierra Mallorca/Unsplash)

The standalone monthly SAAR of total housing starts for all areas in Canada declined 11% in October (267,055 units) compared to September’s 2022 high (298,811 units). The SAAR of total urban starts also declined, down 11% to 245,234 units in October. Multi-unit urban starts decreased 13% to 188,189 units, while single-detached urban starts fell 4% to 57,045 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 21,821 units.

“Monthly SAAR declined in October, while the six-month trend in housing starts slightly increased. October’s decrease in monthly SAAR housing starts in Canada’s urban areas was driven by both lower multi-unit and single-detached starts. Among Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver, Montreal was the only market to post an increase in total SAAR housing starts, driven by a 19% increase in multi-unit activity. Toronto, down 47% and Vancouver, down 19%, contributed to the overall monthly decline in SAAR housing starts for Canada. Despite this, Housing starts activity remains elevated in Canada in 2022,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s Chief Economist.

The trend in housing starts was 277,667 units in October, up 0.5% from 276,374 units in September, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a clearer picture of upcoming new housing supply. In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as the multi-unit segment largely drives the market and can vary significantly from one month to the next.

Key facts:

Monthly Housing Starts and Other Construction Data are accessible in English and French on our website and the CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
Housing starts data is available on the eleventh business day each month. We will release the November data on December 15 at 8:15 AM ET.
Definitions and methodology to better understand the foundations of the Starts and Completions and Market Absorption surveys.

As a trusted source of housing information, CMHC provides unbiased housing-related data, research, and market information to help close knowledge gaps, and deepen understanding of complex housing issues to inform future policy decisions. Housing starts facilitate the analysis of monthly, quarterly and year-over-year activity in the new home market. The data we collect as part of our Starts and Completions and Market Absorption surveys helps us obtain a clearer picture of upcoming new housing supply and is used as part of our various housing reports.

For more information, follow us on Twitter, YouTube, LinkedIn, Facebook and Instagram.

Information on this release:

We encourage journalists to contact CMHC Media Relations and arrange to speak to our market analysts regarding the housing starts in their respective Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs).

Media Relations, CMHC
media@cmhc-schl.gc.ca

Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over (Provinces)
	Single-Detached			All Others			Total
	October 2021	October 2022	%	October 2021	October 2022	%	October 2021	October 2022	%
N.-L.	49	23	-53	15	2	-87	64	25	-61
P.E.I.	31	34	10	80	40	-50	111	74	-33
N.S.	326	133	-59	439	83	-81	765	216	-72
N.B.	92	103	12	164	54	-67	256	157	-39
Atlantic	498	293	-41	698	179	-74	1,196	472	-61
Qc	678	578	-15	4,132	4,177	1	4,810	4,755	-1
Ont.	1,961	1,941	-1	4,711	5,335	13	6,672	7,276	9
Man.	201	236	17	169	534	216	370	770	108
Sask.	132	91	-31	86	297	245	218	388	78
Alta.	1,132	1,094	-3	1,853	2,816	52	2,985	3,910	31
Prairies	1,465	1,421	-3	2,108	3,647	73	3,573	5,068	42
B.C.	601	626	4	2,074	2,903	40	2,675	3,529	32
Canada (10,000+)	5,203	4,859	-7	13,723	16,241	18	18,926	21,100	11

Data for 2021 and 2022 based on 2016 Census Definitions.

Source: CMHC Starts and Completion Survey, Market Absorption Survey

## not calculable / extreme value

Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over (Metropolitan Areas)
	Single-Detached			All Others			Total
	October 2021	October 2022	%	October 2021	October 2022	%	October 2021	October 2022	%
Abbotsford – Mission	23	32	39	44	29	-34	67	61	-9
Barrie	113	86	-24	119	34	-71	232	120	-48
Belleville	33	17	-48	14	6	-57	47	23	-51
Brantford	14	138	##	5	61	##	19	199	##
Calgary	490	503	3	765	1,185	55	1,255	1,688	35
Edmonton	463	438	-5	1,000	1,529	53	1,463	1,967	34
Greater Sudbury	28	6	-79	6	2	-67	34	8	-76
Guelph	6	7	17	8	18	125	14	25	79
Halifax	264	34	-87	408	42	-90	672	76	-89
Hamilton	33	47	42	51	308	##	84	355	323
Kelowna	49	41	-16	29	153	428	78	194	149
Kingston	30	24	-20	22	10	-55	52	34	-35
Kitchener – Cambridge – Waterloo	56	115	105	555	352	-37	611	467	-24
Lethbridge	23	20	-13	22	8	-64	45	28	-38
London	155	113	-27	82	270	229	237	383	62
Moncton	28	22	-21	133	23	-83	161	45	-72
Montréal	241	132	-45	2,170	2,325	7	2,411	2,457	2
Oshawa	94	47	-50	270	775	187	364	822	126
Ottawa – Gatineau	350	431	23	1,179	1,276	8	1,529	1,707	12
Gatineau	65	91	40	253	478	89	318	569	79
Ottawa	285	340	19	926	798	-14	1,211	1,138	-6
Peterborough	10	24	140	0	0	–	10	24	140
Québec	76	88	16	586	726	24	662	814	23
Regina	61	16	-74	24	140	483	85	156	84
Saguenay	22	27	23	20	18	-10	42	45	7
St. Catharines – Niagara	64	72	13	221	113	-49	285	185	-35
Saint John	26	27	4	8	2	-75	34	29	-15
St. John’s	45	20	-56	15	2	-87	60	22	-63
Saskatoon	64	68	6	55	150	173	119	218	83
Sherbrooke	37	25	-32	226	94	-58	263	119	-55
Thunder Bay	11	10	-9	0	4	##	11	14	27
Toronto	539	496	-8	2,105	2,362	12	2,644	2,858	8
Trois-Rivières	27	18	-33	64	62	-3	91	80	-12
Vancouver	262	309	18	1,512	1,870	24	1,774	2,179	23
Victoria	70	41	-41	267	563	111	337	604	79
Windsor	32	33	3	45	26	-42	77	59	-23
Winnipeg	154	197	28	137	508	271	291	705	142
Total	3,993	3,724	-7	12,167	15,046	24	16,160	18,770	16

Data for 2021 and 2022 based on 2016 Census Definitions.

Source: CMHC Starts and Completion Survey, Market Absorption Survey

## not calculable / extreme value

Housing Start Data — Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR) (Provinces — 10,000+)
	Single-Detached			All Others			Total
	September 2022	October 2022	%	September 2022	October 2022	%	September 2022	October 2022	%
N.L.	449	232	-48	79	24	-70	528	256	-52
P.E.I.	10	275	##	0	480	##	10	755	##
N.S.	1,991	1,514	-24	1,133	1,047	-8	3,124	2,561	-18
N.B.	1,153	1,049	-9	3,712	655	-82	4,865	1,704	-65
Qc	5,094	6,463	27	35,027	43,233	23	40,121	49,696	24
Ont.	23,045	22,632	-2	107,919	63,890	-41	130,964	86,522	-34
Man.	2,681	2,788	4	1,656	6,408	287	4,337	9,196	112
Sask.	1,213	926	-24	1,428	3,564	150	2,641	4,490	70
Alta.	15,653	13,433	-14	23,794	33,867	42	39,447	47,300	20
B.C.	8,089	7,733	-4	42,102	35,021	-17	50,191	42,754	-15
Canada (10,000+)	59,378	57,045	-4	216,850	188,189	-13	276,228	245,234	-11
Canada (All Areas)	75,871	72,769	-4	222,940	194,285	-13	298,811	267,055	-11

Data for 2021 and 2022 based on 2016 Census Definitions.

Source: CMHC Starts and Completion Survey, Market Absorption Survey

## not calculable / extreme value

Housing Start Data — Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR) (Metropolitan Areas)
	Single-Detached			All Others			Total
	September 2022	October 2022	%	September 2022	October 2022	%	September 2022	October 2022	%
Abbotsford – Mission	420	429	2	1,500	348	-77	1,920	777	-60
Barrie	1,368	937	-32	4,740	408	-91	6,108	1,345	-78
Belleville	265	193	-27	204	72	-65	469	265	-43
Brantford	657	1,202	83	552	732	33	1,209	1,934	60
Calgary	6,404	6,033	-6	13,068	14,220	9	19,472	20,253	4
Edmonton	7,374	5,310	-28	9,384	18,348	96	16,758	23,658	41
Greater Sudbury	74	66	-11	216	24	-89	290	90	-69
Guelph	86	121	41	1,476	216	-85	1,562	337	-78
Halifax	664	472	-29	264	504	91	928	976	5
Hamilton	1,028	658	-36	1,068	3,696	246	2,096	4,354	108
Kelowna	597	666	12	2,496	1,836	-26	3,093	2,502	-19
Kingston	528	318	-40	264	120	-55	792	438	-45
Kitchener – Cambridge – Waterloo	1,020	1,346	32	2,556	4,224	65	3,576	5,570	56
Lethbridge	220	221	0	36	96	167	256	317	24
London	681	1,362	100	2,940	3,240	10	3,621	4,602	27
Moncton	275	271	-1	2,568	276	-89	2,843	547	-81
Montréal	1,497	1,389	-7	23,395	27,820	19	24,892	29,209	17
Oshawa	978	598	-39	2,652	9,300	251	3,630	9,898	173
Ottawa – Gatineau	2,898	4,134	43	20,736	15,312	-26	23,634	19,446	-18
Gatineau	218	768	252	1,488	5,736	285	1,706	6,504	281
Ottawa	2,680	3,366	26	19,248	9,576	-50	21,928	12,942	-41
Peterborough	667	522	-22	72	0	-100	739	522	-29
Québec	652	996	53	4,968	8,712	75	5,620	9,708	73
Regina	276	197	-29	708	1,680	137	984	1,877	91
Saguenay	264	292	11	288	216	-25	552	508	-8
St. Catharines – Niagara	1,225	814	-34	8,364	1,356	-84	9,589	2,170	-77
Saint John	246	302	23	0	24	##	246	326	33
St. John’s	348	200	-43	48	24	-50	396	224	-43
Saskatoon	943	738	-22	540	1,800	233	1,483	2,538	71
Sherbrooke	324	318	-2	1,500	1,128	-25	1,824	1,446	-21
Thunder Bay	107	83	-22	96	48	-50	203	131	-35
Toronto	6,036	6,056	0	59,172	28,344	-52	65,208	34,400	-47
Trois-Rivières	162	213	31	744	744	–	906	957	6
Vancouver	4,548	3,532	-22	27,516	22,440	-18	32,064	25,972	-19
Victoria	621	549	-12	2,604	6,756	159	3,225	7,305	127
Windsor	678	413	-39	1,464	312	-79	2,142	725	-66
Winnipeg	2,269	2,491	10	1,140	6,096	435	3,409	8,587	152