MECQ may push up to 70K less Covid-19 cases: UP experts

During a briefing aired over state-run PTV, Guido David of the UP Institute of Mathematics and Ranjit Singh Rye of the UP Department of Political Science said they forecast about 220,000 Covid-19 cases by the end of August if NCR and nearby provinces still remain under general community quarantine (GCQ). (File photo: CDC/Unsplash)

MANILA – The number of new coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) cases in the country will be reduced to 50,000 or 70,000 after President Rodrigo Duterte reverted the National Capital Region (NCR) and nearby provinces to modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ), two University of the Philippines (UP) professors said Monday.

During a briefing aired over state-run PTV, Guido David of the UP Institute of Mathematics and Ranjit Singh Rye of the UP Department of Political Science said they forecast about 220,000 Covid-19 cases by the end of August if NCR and nearby provinces still remain under general community quarantine (GCQ).

After listening to the plea of medical and health professionals for a stricter form of quarantine, Duterte announced Monday night the re-imposition of MECQ for Metro Manila, Laguna, Cavite, Rizal, and Bulacan from August 4 to 18 based on his Cabinet’s recommendation.

Rye said the reversion to MECQ has a big implication, especially on the transmission rate of the virus.

“Kung magtutulungan tayo, ang taong bayan, ang private sector at ang gobyerno, lalo na at mapaigting ang T3 (testing, tracing, treatment), mas mataas pa ang kasong mai-se-save natin. Malaki at maraming tao ang mase-save from Covid-19 lalo na yung sa mortality (If we will cooperate –– the public, the private sector and the government –– we will strengthen T3, we will be able to save more lives from Covid-19),” he said.

Both Rye and David are part of a UP research team that publishes reports on the Covid-19 pandemic since April.

They said the transmission rate in the country is now at almost 1.5, but because of the stricter protocols for the next 15 days, it is possible to go down to one.

The transmission rate or the “R-naught” or the reproductive number is an indicator of how contagious a disease is, or how easily it spreads from one person to another in a community.

The two experts called on the public to cooperate with the government and help make MECQ work.

“Sa ating mga kababayan, importante kung gusto nating tumulong, gusto nating mag-ambag laban sa Covid, stay at home, yung practice ng physical distancing, pag praktis ng pagsuot ng PPEs lalo na ng mask at visor, paghugas ng kamay. Kung gusto nating tumulong sa komunidad natin gawin nating lahat to (To the public, it is very important that if we want to help in the fight against Covid, stay at home, practice physical distancing, wear your PP’s especially face mask and the visor, wash your hands, let’s do all this if we want to contribute),” they said.