PH markets shed on inflation, trade concerns

PSEi declined to 7,600-level after it shed 1.47 percent, or 113.56 points, to 7,638.71 points. (Shutterstock photo)

MANILA — Worries emanating from rising inflation along with trade concerns overseas resulted in the negative close of both the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) and the peso, which narrowly missed a 13-year low against the greenback, Thursday.

PSEi declined to 7,600-level after it shed 1.47 percent, or 113.56 points, to 7,638.71 points.

Papa Securities Corp. (PSC) trader Gio Perez, in a comment after the day’s trade, said the main index posted as much as 200 points drop mid-trade Thursday due to negative sentiments following the release of the country’s August 2018 inflation rate, which accelerated to 6.4 percent. He also said foreign selling continued, noting that this has been at over PHP1 billion since Wednesday.

For Friday, a 7,500-level is being considered as PSEi’s support level. “Dollar-Peso weakness might also further add to the negativity for the last day of the week,” Perez added.

The main gauge’s path was mirrored by all other indices, with the broader All Shares down by 1.

49 percent, or 70.36 points, to 4,661.66 points.

Mining and Oil registered the highest drop among the sectors with 2.86 percent slide.

It was followed by the Holding Firms, 1.93 percent; Financials, 1.74 percent; Property, 1.21 percent; Industrial, 0.88 percent; and Services, 0.70 percent.

Volume reached 1.17 billion shares amounting to PHP6.

7 billion.

Losers led gainers at 161 to 37 while 41 stocks were unchanged.

Similarly, the peso ended the day at 53.8, a depreciation from its 53.55 close a day ago and the weakest after its 53.985  finish to the greenback on December 7, 2005.

ING Bank senior economist Joey Cuyegkeng attributed the peso’s weakness to several factors like the contagion from the performance of currencies of other emerging markets (EMs), the tightening of US monetary policy and the August 2018 inflation report. “In addition, the market is also in the midst of the seasonal peak in imports resulting to higher USD demand,” he said.

Cuyegkeng said the peso can get some lift if the BSP implements an “aggressive” monetary policy tightening and “likely large capital inflows in the next few months in a more favorable EM environment.”

“But in the meantime as long as market perceives external and local risks, PHP could be on the defensive in the near term,” he said.

Meanwhile, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo declined to give any indications on the path of the local currency, noting that the “exchange rate is one of the most difficult variables to forecast.”

He said that in general the local currency is weakening because of higher importation as a result of the continued expansion of the domestic economy. “Again, (it’s) because of fundamental reason,” he said.

The central bank official, however, pointed out that the local unit even touched the 56-level in 2005 or 2006, thus, its current performance is not unique.

 He said this is something of a concern but stressed that “this is part of the essence of a flexible exchange rate.”

“The exchange rate is flexible to accommodate these shocks in the system including from the domestic economy,” he added.