Alberta poll finds UCP and NDP tied as separation debate continues

Philippine Canadian Inquirer
October 06, 2026

Photo Courtesy: CBC News

A new poll in Alberta has found the United Conservative Party and Alberta NDP tied at 41 percent in provincial voting intentions, as the province heads toward an October referendum that includes a question on separation from Canada.

The Janet Brown Opinion Research poll, commissioned by CBC, surveyed 1,200 Alberta voters between September 8 and 21, 2026 using a hybrid method. The results show the UCP down eight points from its April standing, while the NDP gained five points.

The polling also showed differences across Alberta. In Calgary, the NDP moved from trailing the UCP by nine points in April to leading by eight points in the latest survey. In Edmonton, the NDP maintained a lead, while the UCP continued to hold an advantage outside the province’s two largest cities.

On the question of Alberta’s future within Canada, the poll found 72 percent would vote to remain a province of Canada, while 23 percent would support beginning the legal process toward a future binding referendum on separation. The October 19 ballot question would not itself make Alberta independent; it asks whether the province should begin that legal process.

The latest figures are broadly consistent with other recent polling showing stronger support for remaining in Canada than for separation. An Ipsos survey earlier this year found 72 percent would vote to keep Alberta in Canada if a binding separation referendum were held, compared with 18 percent who said they would vote to leave.

With the October 19 referendum approaching and the provincial election still roughly a year away, the poll provides a snapshot of Alberta’s current political landscape, with party support tightening while the separation debate remains a major issue in the province.