PAGASA declares end of El Niño but dry spell still likely in 6 areas

FOOD WARRIORS. It’s rice planting season in San Miguel, Bulacan as farmers take advantage of fair weather on Friday (June 7, 2024). State weather bureau PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season, a welcome development for the agricultural sector which has incurred El Niño-related losses worth PHP9.5 billion to date. (PNA photo by Joan Bondoc)

MANILA – The weather bureau declared the end of the El Niño phenomenon Friday, but noted that its effects could still be felt in some parts of the country.

“This June, dry spell is forecast in Bataan, Pangasinan, Tarlac, and Zambales, while drought is likely in Apayao and Cagayan,” Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) chief Nathaniel Servando told the Philippine News Agency.

He said these are just remnant effects of El Niño and are forecast to last within the month since it is already the rainy season.

“When you heat a rod or blow a candle, the hot temperature does not go right away. The same with El Niño, its effects could still be felt in some areas,” he said.

He said the conditions in the tropical Pacific have returned to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral levels which means neither El Niño nor La Niña currently prevails.

Despite the ENSO-neutral condition and prevailing southwest monsoon, the impacts of El Niño, such as warmer than usual surface temperature and below normal rainfall, may still continue in some areas of the country, PAGASA’s advisory read.

Meanwhile, there is a 69 percent probability that La Niña would persist by July, August or September.

“There’s a greater probability that La Niña would happen by the last quarter until February next year,” Servando said.

PAGASA, he said, continuously monitors the probability of a La Niña which is expected to cause excessive rainfall, floods and landslides.

The warm and humid weather being experienced in some areas now are mostly due to rains caused by the southwest monsoon, he said.