Rising Covid-19 cases in NCR not worrisome: OCTA Research

A total of 434 new cases were recorded in the NCR on Monday while the positivity rate climbed to 5.9 percent on June 25 from 3.9 percent on June 18. (Pixabay photo)

MANILA – National Capital Region (NCR)’s Covid-19 cases may increase up to 500 this week but there is no need to panic.

Dr. Guido David, OCTA Research fellow, said Tuesday the rise cannot be considered a surge yet.

“Tumataas ang cases sa NCR sa 52 percent one-week growth rate. Ang seven-day average natin ay 342. We expect na baka tumaas pa siya (The Covid-19 cases are increasing in NCR, with a 52 percent one-week growth rate. Our seven-day average is 342. We expect the cases to rise), may be between 400 to 500 this week,” David said during the Laging Handa public briefing.

A total of 434 new cases were recorded in the NCR on Monday while the positivity rate climbed to 5.9 percent on June 25 from 3.9 percent on June 18.

“Pero hindi naman ito nakakabahala. Mababa pa ito kumpara sa mga nakaraan na surge (But this is not worrisome. It’s much lower compared to those recorded in previous surges),” he said.

In an online media forum, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said disease transmission rate is based on different factors, including vaccine effectiveness against the infection rate of vaccination, mobility, observance of minimum public health standards (MPHS) and isolation protocols, and entry of imported cases.

Vergeire’s projection is about 17,000 cases per day if there is reduced compliance with MPHS.

“Based on the data of transmission rates, the number of cases continues to increase on the national level. Following the baseline scenario of 21 percent decline in our MPHS from February 14, we may reach 17,105 cases per day at the end of July,” she said.

Assuming that the face-to-face classes in the NCR will rise to 90 percent by mid-August and no new variant of concern will come up, Vergeire said a slow rise in cases may be seen by mid-July and there may be low peak in mid-September where cases may reach 1,784 cases per day.

Aside from Metro Manila, David noted that the Covid-19 positivity rate in Calabarzon ranges between 5 to 7 percent.

“Hindi pa naman ito lumalagpas ng 10 percent, except in areas na konti lang ‘yung testing so patuloy na mino-monitor natin ito (It’s not yet exceeding 10 percent, except in areas with few testing so we continue to monitor this),” he said.

David said the highly transmissible Covid-19 Omicron sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5 are causing spikes in the United Kingdom, France, Portugal, and South Africa, among others.