Fed seen to raise rates this week amid rising inflation, conflict

WASHINGTON – The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to start raising interest rates from near zero this week as the Ukraine conflict could further push up US inflation, which has been rising to the highest level in four decades, economists said.

“Despite the geopolitical developments, we still expect the FOMC will hike the federal funds rate by 25 bps (basis points) at the conclusion of its March 15-16 meeting,” Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities, said in a recent analysis, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy-making committee.

“A near-complete labor market recovery and inflation that is well-above the central bank’s target make the case clear for beginning the tightening cycle,” Bryson said, adding skyrocketing commodity prices and more potential supply chain disruptions due to the Ukraine conflict create additional sources of inflationary pressure.

The consumer price index (CPI) last month surged 7.9 percent from a year earlier, the largest 12-month growth since the period ending January 1982, according to the US Labor Department.

At a congressional hearing earlier this month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he was inclined to support a 25-basis-point rate hike at the March policy meeting, the first move since the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic.

When asked about how international events would impact the Fed’s decision, Powell said that before the Ukraine crisis, the Fed was set to initiate a series of rate hikes this year.

Powell said it is too soon to say for sure how the ongoing conflict, the response from nations around the world, including sanctions may have changed that expectation, but for now, the Fed will proceed carefully with that plan.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at major accounting firm Grant Thornton, said the Fed is expected to be “demonstrably more hawkish” than it was just a few months ago.

“The statement following the FOMC meeting is expected to highlight the need for a series of rate hikes, while closely monitoring financial market conditions,” Swonk said last week in a blog.

“Powell will be walking a tightrope, balancing the needs to raise rates and rein in a more systemic rise in inflation with the need to avert a meltdown in credit markets,” she added.

Desmond Lachman, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said higher international oil prices could exert considerable inflationary pressure and force the Fed to be more aggressive on raising rates.

The Fed’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, to be released Wednesday, could show the median projection of 25-basis-point rate hikes in 2022 rising from three to at least four, and even more likely five, Bryson said.

Some economists have been calling for more aggressive rate hikes from the Fed.

Goldman Sachs economists said last month they expected seven 25-basis-point rate hikes this year, up from five it had projected earlier, to contain hotter-than-expected inflation.

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting and consulting firm RSM US LLP, warned that top-line inflation may exceed 10 percent this year before settling into the high single digits to close out the year.

“We have most likely arrived at a turning point where elevated inflation will define the economic narrative for several years. That may require much higher interest rates than have been observed in recent years and will diminish the probability of central banks achieving a soft landing for the economy,” Brusuelas said Monday in an analysis.

“We think the current price shock will shave roughly 1 to 1.5 percentage points off economic growth over the next 12 months,” Brusuelas said, adding the probability of a recession will most likely jump from the current 15 percent to about 33 percent in the coming weeks.