PAGASA declares start of Amihan season, warns El Niño may bring warmer, drier conditions

ASM, Philippine Canadian Inquirer
October 28, 2026

Photo courtesy: DOST-PAGASA

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines has officially entered the Northeast Monsoon, locally known as Amihan, bringing the possibility of cooler weather in the coming months despite the ongoing El Niño phenomenon.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced the start of the season on Tuesday, October 27, following changes in wind patterns and temperatures over Northern Luzon.

According to PAGASA, a strengthening high-pressure area over East Asia has triggered a surge of northeasterly winds, causing temperatures to drop in the country’s northernmost areas.

These conditions signal the beginning of Amihan, which is expected to gradually affect most parts of the Philippines.

The weather bureau said the season could bring cooler temperatures, occasional cold surges, and rough sea conditions, particularly in areas exposed to strong northeasterly winds.

However, Filipinos may experience a different kind of Amihan this year as El Niño continues to affect the country’s weather.

PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando warned that the ongoing climate phenomenon could reduce rainfall and limit the cooling effects typically associated with the monsoon.

While cooler winds are still expected from November to January, temperatures may remain higher than normal for the season.

Cold days could also be shorter and less frequent, rather than bringing prolonged periods of cooler weather.

Despite the drier outlook, Amihan can still produce light rainfall, particularly along the eastern sections of the country.

Other weather systems, including shear lines, tropical cyclones, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), may also bring rain and thunderstorms during the monsoon season.

PAGASA said it would continue closely monitoring these conditions as El Niño is expected to intensify before the end of 2026.

The weather bureau has warned that the phenomenon could become very strong, increasing the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, dry spells, and drought in some areas.

Its climate outlook also indicates that warmer-than-usual conditions may persist across much of the country in the coming months.

The combination of Amihan and El Niño presents contrasting weather conditions, with cooler winds expected alongside an increased risk of prolonged dry weather.

Servando announced the onset of the monsoon during the groundbreaking ceremony for PAGASA’s Doppler Weather Radar Station in Abucay, Bataan.

With the new season underway, PAGASA advised the public and concerned agencies to monitor weather advisories, particularly for changes in rainfall, temperatures, and sea conditions.

The agency will continue assessing the interaction between Amihan and El Niño to provide updated forecasts as the country approaches the final months of the year.