Olivia Chow leads Brad Bradford in Toronto mayoral poll as October 26 election nears

ASM, Philippine Canadian Inquirer
October 25, 2026

Photo courtesy: Toronto Star

TORONTO, Canada — Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow has an 11-point lead over challenger Brad Bradford in a new Pollara survey, although other recent polls suggest a much closer contest ahead of the city’s municipal election on Monday, October 26.

The survey, released October 23, found that 55 per cent of decided voters supported Chow, compared with 44 per cent for Bradford.

Among all respondents, including those who remain undecided, Chow received 47 per cent support while Bradford had 38 per cent. Another 13 per cent had yet to choose a candidate.

The findings give the incumbent mayor an advantage in Pollara’s final days of tracking, but the wider polling picture remains mixed as both candidates seek support before election day.

Other polls show a closer mayoral race

While Pollara placed Chow ahead by double digits, a separate Liaison Strategies survey released October 21 showed Bradford with 49 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, compared with 47 per cent for Chow.

The two-point difference was within the survey’s margin of error, leaving no clear leader in that poll.

Another survey by Canada Pulse Insights, released October 23, placed Chow at 51 per cent and Bradford at 46 per cent.

The differences between the surveys highlight the uncertainty surrounding the race, with polling firms reporting varying levels of support for the two leading candidates.

Chow is seeking her first full term as mayor after winning Toronto’s 2023 mayoral byelection. Bradford, a city councillor, is challenging her for the city’s top elected position.

Affordability and public services shape the campaign

Toronto’s cost of living, public safety, taxes and municipal services have become central issues in the mayoral race.

Pollara’s latest findings showed Chow receiving stronger assessments than Bradford on affordability, safety, taxation and working with other levels of government.

The survey also found that 48 per cent of respondents viewed Chow favourably, compared with 36 per cent for Bradford.

However, voters were more divided over which candidate would deliver change or better manage the city’s economy and employment opportunities.

The future of Toronto’s water services has also attracted attention during the campaign.

An earlier Pollara survey found that 62 per cent of respondents were concerned about the possibility of privatizing Toronto Water, including 38 per cent who were very concerned.

The polling reflects the range of issues voters are considering as the candidates present competing approaches to managing the city.

Poll commissioned by union supporting Chow

The latest Pollara survey was commissioned by CUPE Local 416, the Toronto Civic Employees’ Union, which formally endorsed Chow on October 1.

Pollara surveyed 1,094 eligible Toronto voters between October 16 and 21, using a combination of online questionnaires and live telephone interviews.

The results were weighted to reflect Toronto’s population by age, gender and region.

Because the survey included an online panel, a conventional margin of error does not apply. The results also included respondents who had already voted during advance polling.

Toronto voters head to polls October 26

Toronto residents will elect their mayor and other municipal representatives on Monday, October 26.

According to the City of Toronto, polling locations will be open from 10 AM to 8 PM local time.

With recent surveys showing different results, the final outcome will depend on the votes cast rather than any single polling estimate.