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Could Trump’s tariffs break Canadians’ consensus on trade?
Once a consensus issue and shared national priority, trade risks becoming source of national polarization well beyond the election. (Pexels Photo)
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Canadians could be forgiven for thinking last winter felt especially long.
With U.S. trade accounting for 76 per cent of Canada’s exported goods and 62 per cent of imports, the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats have rightfully shocked Canadians.
Add Trump’s repeated suggestion that Canada become the 51st U.S. state and the term “existential crisis” seems less and less like an exaggeration.
Trade at top of mind
Not since the “free trade election” in 1988 has this single issue captured Canadians’ political attention. At that time, public opinion toward the idea was deeply entwined with partisanship.
Since then, Canada has achieved a relative consensus around support for the idea.
While there is no such thing as “free” trade, freer trade or trade that is less encumbered by tariffs and non-tariff barriers (such as regulatory differences) has largely been a point of agreement over the past 35 years.
Was such a rare national consensus across party lines inevitably doomed to collapse at some point?
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It’s not surprising that Canadians have largely come to support free trade with the U.S. Trade accounts for two-thirds of Canada’s GDP.
Data from the Canadian Election Study collected since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) went into effect in 1994 shows that regardless of political position, support for free trade appears to be both consistent and strong.
When asked whether “free trade with the U.S. has been good for the Canadian economy,” Canadians are in overwhelming agreement. More than three-quarters of those surveyed support this statement.
While NDP supporters have been more resistant than those who identify with other parties (up to 2015 when this question was discontinued), a clear majority believe free trade with our closest neighbour has been a net positive.
More recent survey data shows equally strong agreement with the statement “international trade creates more jobs than it destroys” – something that has been asked in every election cycle (except 2006) since 1997.
Broken down by party support, the pattern is similar between Liberals and Conservatives. Support for free trade among those who voted for the NDP and Bloc has been more reserved but has nevertheless trended upward since 2015.
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Differing views south of the border
Americans don’t necessarily share our views, but they aren’t far off either. Current polling from Abacus Data shows 84 per cent of those surveyed agree that free trade between Canada and the U.S. leaves both better off.
However, 56 per cent also believe Canada benefits “way more” – echoing Trump’s repeated assertion the U.S. “subsidizes” Canada to the tune of US$200 billion per year (in reference to a perceived trade deficit).
The American National Election Study collects data on Americans’ response to the following statement: “Some people have suggested placing new limits on foreign imports in order to protect American jobs. Others say that such limits would raise consumer prices and hurt American exports.”
Differences between Republican and Democratic supporters appear to have grown more substantial recently.
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This highlights the challenge of constructively discussing trade across party lines. If current political discourse is to be believed, Republicans should have a homogeneously protectionist view of their country, which does not appear to be the case.
Such views are harder to find among Canadian conservatives.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford has led the charge against the tariffs with a strong voice for keeping trade lines open and active. Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has been careful not to align himself with Trump while Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been more reserved in her criticisms, motivated to sustain trade flows.
Trade election 2.0
Heading into a federal election, the issue of trade with the U.S. has united Canadians.
Collective feelings of betrayal and outrage may even serve to amplify patriotism and push Canadians to set aside internal political divisions. This could turn into an unexpected wild card at the ballot box, undermining previous Conservative electoral messaging designed to underscore a sense of national polarization.
As Trump’s tariffs galvanize a sense of national unity, Poilievre may find it harder to turn trade into a wedge issue as economic patriotism, not partisan division, takes centre stage.
Nevertheless, the effects of Trump’s tariffs will not be felt evenly. Western Canada’s oil and gas sector may escape the worst, while manufacturing hubs in Ontario and Quebec still face acute job losses.
This could fuel economic nationalism among blue-collar workers, particularly younger men who tend to work in these industries (some of whom may have been amenable toward Trump).
Supply chain disruptions and rising consumer prices will disproportionately impact women who are overrepresented in retail and service industries and who tend to bear greater responsibility for supporting families.
At the same time, Canada’s agricultural sector – heavily integrated and reliant on exports to the U.S. – faces significant uncertainty, particularly in grain, livestock and dairy farming where tariff-driven price volatility could threaten livelihoods.
With housing affordability at crisis levels, inflation straining household budgets and interest rates weighing on businesses, retaliatory tariffs may appeal to those seeking economic security, even as globalized industries and foreign investors push back against trade restrictions.
As long as threats of tariffs loom and rhetoric around buying Canadian takes centre stage, the more trade will serve as a proxy for a gamut of other issues and insecurities felt by Canadians.
Once a consensus issue and shared national priority, trade risks becoming source of national polarization well beyond the election.
This article first appeared on Policy Options and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
