NCR Covid reproduction number down to 1.16: OCTA Research

MANILA – The coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) reproduction number in Metro Manila decreased this week, 18 days after the declaration of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), the OCTA Research Team reported Friday.

In its latest monitoring report, OCTA Research said the reproduction number is at 1.16 for the week of April 9 to 15, down from 1.61 when ECQ was first imposed for a week from March 29 to April 4.

The reproduction number is used to describe the number of people who can get the virus from a Covid-19 positive person. If the number is less than 1, the epidemic curve is flattening, but a number higher than 1 means the virus is spreading.

The group said the average number of new Covid-19 cases reported per day in the National Capital Region (NCR) was 5,085 over the past week, with a one-week growth rate of -0.4 percent.

The positivity rate, meanwhile, was 24 percent over the past week, an improvement from the 25 percent positivity rate observed from the previous week. Metro Manila had an average of 28,000 tests per day over the past seven days, it said.

OCTA Research cited “downward trends” in Pasay, Manila, Marikina, Taguig, and Mandaluyong after recording two weeks or more of negative one-week growth rates.

But while the trend has slowed in Metro Manila, OCTA Research said the region will continue to have a high number of new Covid-19 cases for the next weeks, “which means demand for hospital care in the NCR will not ease very soon.”

“People must continue to strictly comply with prevailing health guidelines in order to help prevent the spread of the virus in the region,” it stressed.

From April 9 to 15, it said NCR accounted for at least 47 percent of the new reported Covid-19 cases, while 20 percent were from Calabarzon, 11 percent from Central Luzon, five percent from Cagayan Valley, and four percent from Western Visayas.

The one-week growth rate of new cases in Calabarzon and Bulacan was 14 percent, while the one-week growth rate in Western Visayas was highest at 97 percent. Cagayan Valley had a one week-growth rate of -14 percent.

The group said the largest one-week growth rate in the NCR Plus areas was in Kawit, Cavite, which had at least 83 new Covid-19 cases per day, an increase of 417 percent compared to the previous week.