UP Experts: Number of COVID-19 patients may reach 76,000 by August

They also linked the continuing growth of cases to community transmission “in areas with poor compliance with minimum health standards” and increased testing capacity. (File: PNA photo by Lade Kabagani)

The number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the Philippines could reach up to 76,000 by August, according to the latest estimated projections of experts from the University of the Philippines (UP) on Monday.

According the Dr. Darwin Bandoy, an associate professor at the UP Los Baños, the cases will continue to rise each day and reach 76,000 by August 1.

“‘Yung conservative na estimate ay magpapatuloy pa rin po siya sa mga susunod na araw at sa August 1, may mga projections po… average is around 76,000 po ‘yung projected values, (The conservative estimate will continue to rise in the following days, and by August 1, the projections are… around 76,000 projected values on average),” Bandoy said.

The UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team, where Bandoy is a member, said that the cases in the Philippines continue to rise despite the death rate remaining at 2%. Bandoy also said that the projections can still change.

They also linked the continuing growth of cases to community transmission “in areas with poor compliance with minimum health standards” and increased testing capacity.

“If interaction, contact is reduced, we may be able to change and improve our situation,” Bandoy said.

Bandoy pointed out that the team comes up with models and predictions to allow the government to prepare its response to the situation and instill behavioral changes among the people in strictly observing health and safety measures and the practice of proper social distancing.

“We use these models to estimate the hospital capacity, project the peak and duration [of the infection] as a way to prepare as well as create behavioral change,” Bandoy explains.

“We shouldn’t fear these models. These can serve as a guide for us to change our behavior and improve our response,” he added.

Earlier, the University of the Philippines predicted that the country’s coronavirus disease cases by the end of July will hit 51,095 to 67,795. On Monday, the Department of Health has recorded an additional 1,521 cases, resulting in a total of 68,898 cases, which is more than what UP has predicted.

The death toll has risen to 1,835 as four people who died from the viral disease were added while recoveries increased by 607 to 23,072.

Worldwide, the coronavirus disease has infected around 14.5 million people and killed around 606,000, according to the Johns Hopkins University.