Rise in peak power demand seen in 2018

POWER DEMAND FORECAST. Erwill Bugaoisan, head of National Grid Corporation of the Philippines’ Systems and Standards Division, and spokesperson Cynthia Perez-Alabanza tells reporters on what to expect in 2018 during a press briefing on Jan. 17, 2017. (Photo by Albert-Anthony Abando/PNA photo)

MANILA — The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) announced Wednesday that their peak demand forecast for 2018 may exceed 2017 figures, based on the firm’s current data and actual figures from 2017.

In a press conference held at the NGCP Main Office in Quezon City, lawyer Cynthia Perez-Alabanza, spokesperson for the NGCP, indicated that the company sees no issue in supply across all three grids-Luzon, Visayas, Mindanao-assuming that nothing deviates from the projections based on planned outages, the maintenance program, and the historical peaks and the projected rise in demand by the Department of Energy (DOE).

“There’s always a potential for power outages, but assuming that everything remains on plan and on schedule, we see nothing that we can reasonably predict. This is all part of the factual data that NGCP gathers as part of its mandate,” Alabanza said.

According to Erwill Bugaoisan, Head of Systems and Standards Division and Technical Services Department of NGCP, the Luzon grid breached its projected peak demand of 9,760 megawatts (MW) on May 9, 2017, peaking at 10,064 MW.

For the Visayas grid, the 1,975 MW projection saw an increase of 8.51 percent or a total of 2,143 MW recorded on November 14, while the Mindanao grid registered a lower peak demand of 1,760 on December 5.

Bugaoisan said that traditionally, Luzon reaches its peak demand on the hottest day of summer, while there was no scientific or empirical data to explain why the Visayas and Mindanao grids peak at different months.

Meanwhile, the NGCP also forecasts that for the Luzon grid, the peak demand would increase by 5.04 percent, compared with that in 2017 or a total of 10,561 MW.

Peak demand for the Visayas grid is expected to go up by 8.51 percent or a total of 2,143MW, and the Mindanao grid is expected to peak at 2,064 or an increase of 17.27 percent.

Meanwhile, NGCP also gave a rundown of projects completed in 2017. These include the Santiago-Tuguegarao’s 239 kilovolt (kV) line and the relocation of structures along the Esteban-Laoag 230 kV transmission line in North Luzon.

In the South Luzon area, the Eastern Albay 69 kV line was completed, the Lumban-Bay transmission line upgraded, and the Luzon and Las Piňas substations expanded.

For the Visayas grid, completed are the Culasi-San Jose 69kV line, the upgrade of the Panit-an-Nabas 138 kV line, and completion of the Ormoc-Tongonan-Isabel 138kV line, and the Ormoc-Babatngon substation.

The completion of the Aurora-Polanco 138kV line and the Butuan-Placer Transmission line are among the projects accomplished in the Mindanao grid.

NGCP also announced it required its Overall Command Center staff to go on a 24-hour watch, as Mt. Mayon continues to expel lava.

As of 5 p.m. on Wednesday, none of the NGCP transmission lines were within the 15-kilometer danger zone, and transmission operations were running under normal conditions.