{"id":279929,"date":"2020-12-29T02:22:25","date_gmt":"2020-12-29T07:22:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/?p=279929"},"modified":"2020-12-29T02:22:25","modified_gmt":"2020-12-29T07:22:25","slug":"vaccines-may-soon-make-travel-possible-again-but-how-quickly-will-it-return-and-will-it-be-forever-changed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/2020\/12\/29\/vaccines-may-soon-make-travel-possible-again-but-how-quickly-will-it-return-and-will-it-be-forever-changed\/","title":{"rendered":"Vaccines may soon make travel possible again. But how quickly will it return \u2014 and will it be forever changed?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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However, with almost no international travel in 2020, we now have the opposite problem. The pandemic caused a 70% drop in international tourist arrivals globally from January to August, compared to the same period last year. (File Photo: Annie Spratt\/Unsplash)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The COVID-19 pandemic brought the global tourism industry to a screeching halt in 2020. With vaccines starting to be rolled out<\/a>, there is hope international travel can resume soon, but exactly when \u2014 and how \u2014 is the million-dollar question<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Before COVID-19, there was much concern about whether tourism had grown too big<\/a> for our planet. There were calls to scale back tourism<\/a>, make it more environmentally sustainable<\/a> and help over-touristed locations become more resilient<\/a> to crises<\/a>.<\/p>\n

However, with almost no international travel in 2020, we now have the opposite problem. The pandemic caused a 70% drop in international tourist arrivals<\/a> globally from January to August, compared to the same period last year.<\/p>\n

Destinations reliant on international tourists have been the hardest hit. Many are in developing countries<\/a>, where tourism is a major export earner. For example, according to the World Bank, tourism makes up nearly 15% of Thailand\u2019s GDP<\/a>, which is why it recently started allowing select foreign tourists to return for extended stays<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But attempts to reboot international travel on a wider scale have so far failed due to successive waves of COVID-19.<\/p>\n

As a more transmissible and harder-to-control coronavirus variant has emerged in the UK and South Africa<\/a> in recent days, dozens of countries have announced they would close their doors to travellers<\/a> from both nations. Some countries, like Japan<\/a> and Israel<\/a>, have gone a step farther, banning all foreign nationals from entering.<\/p>\n

Even before this, travel bubbles<\/a> and corridors<\/a> between countries have been proposed, but few have managed to take root.<\/p>\n

With borders closed, many countries have put a focus on attracting domestic tourists<\/a> instead. This has helped maintain economic stability in countries such as China<\/a> and Japan<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Hopes for a swift recovery of international travel are now pinned on a silver bullet: the rapid and widespread distribution<\/a> of a vaccine<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Beyond this, we believe getting people back in the air again will be shaped by three key issues.<\/p>\n

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\nRead more:
\nA vaccine will be a game-changer for international travel. But it’s not everything<\/a>
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\n<\/em><\/p>\n

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1) What travel regulations will prove effective?<\/h2>\n

Travel health requirements may soon start to resemble the past<\/a>. In the 1970s, having appropriate vaccinations and health clearances was essential for travel to and from many countries. Coronavirus vaccinations will likely become similarly standard<\/a> for international flights.<\/p>\n

This should be rapidly adopted<\/a> by all countries, and could even be applied more broadly<\/a> – in hotels, for example.<\/p>\n

However, any vaccination regime will need governments to pass strong laws and regulations. Digital travel passes and vaccination passports<\/a> may be one solution, but in order to work, these will require standardisation across borders<\/a>.<\/p>\n

One solution may be the CommonPass<\/a>, a new digital health passport that looks to be a trustworthy model for validating people\u2019s COVID-free status consistently across the globe.<\/p>\n

Other health measures will also remain vital, including mandatory in-flight masks<\/a>, pre-departure<\/a> and arrival testing, mandatory quarantining and social distancing. If vaccination uptake<\/a> in destinations is low, these measures will become even more important.<\/p>\n

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\nRead more:
\nCan governments mandate a COVID vaccination? Balancing public health with human rights \u2013 and what the law says<\/a>
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Touchless travel<\/a> should also become standard at most airports through the use of biometric technology. And passengers should expect temperature screening<\/a> and reduced in-flight services<\/a> to be the new norm.<\/p>\n

Lengthy quarantine periods are one of the biggest obstacles to restarting international tourism \u2014 few people can afford 14 days in a quarantine hotel on top of their holiday.<\/p>\n

There are potential alternatives being tested. Before the new COVID variant emerged, British Airways and American Airlines had piloted a voluntary testing program<\/a> for some passengers as a way of avoiding the mandatory 14-day quarantine period in the UK.<\/p>\n

The British government also implemented its new \u201ctest and release\u201d policy<\/a> in mid-December, which could shorten the quarantine period to five days for international arrivals.<\/p>\n

2) How will airlines restart their businesses?<\/h2>\n

The International Air Transport Association<\/a> expects the airline industry won\u2019t reach pre-pandemic levels again until at least 2024.<\/p>\n

This means any tourism restart is going to require restoring transportation infrastructure<\/a> and networks<\/a>, especially for aviation and cruising<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Many planes are now parked in deserts<\/a> in the US and Australia. They will need to be retrieved and thoroughly serviced<\/a> before recommencing flights. Crews will have to be rehired or retrained.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s not as simple as just getting planes back in the air. A more formidable challenge for airlines will be reestablishing air routes<\/a> while ensuring their ongoing viability<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As airlines slowly build up these networks again, travellers will have to put up with less frequent connections, longer journeys and drawn out stopovers.<\/p>\n

There is some encouraging news, though. In the US, domestic airfares have dropped<\/a>, and though international flight schedules have been drastically reduced, low demand has kept some prices down.<\/p>\n

Smaller and more nimble airlines should perform better. And expect smaller and more efficient aircraft<\/a> to also become more common. Demand for long-haul flights may remain low<\/a> for some time.<\/p>\n

Airports, meanwhile, will require temporary or permanent reconfigurations<\/a> to handle new public heath screening and testing arrangements \u2014 providing yet another possible frustration for travellers.<\/p>\n

Cruise ships and port terminals<\/a> will face similar requirements, as will hotels<\/a> and other accommodation providers<\/a>.<\/p>\n

3) Will traveller confidence return?<\/h2>\n

For leisure travellers, the lingering fear of coronavirus infections<\/a> will be the most formidable obstacle to overcome.<\/p>\n

The Thanksgiving holiday<\/a> in the US and Golden Week<\/a> in China suggest the appetite for travel remains robust. Some analysts also anticipate<\/a> leisure travel will likely recover faster than business travel.<\/p>\n

However, it remains to be seen whether travellers will have a high appetite for risk, or how quickly they\u2019ll adapt to new safety protocols<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The key to bringing traveller confidence back again will be standardising safety and sanitation measures<\/a> throughout the global travel supply chain<\/a>. One idea is a \u201cSafe Travels\u201d stamp<\/a> once companies have complied with health and hygiene protocols.<\/p>\n

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\n
\nRead more:
\nWorried about COVID risk on a flight? Here’s what you can do to protect yourself \u2014 and how airlines can step up<\/a>
\n<\/strong>
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

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How we can build back better<\/h2>\n

COVID-19 has prompted much reflection<\/a> about our relationship with the planet.<\/p>\n

Advocates for more sustainable tourism are hoping the coming years will lead to a rethink of international travel<\/a>, with more innovation and a renewed commitment<\/a> to addressing climate change<\/a> and crisis management<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

However, the likely reality is that destinations will be desperate for economic recovery<\/a> and will compete vigorously for tourism dollars when borders reopen.<\/p>\n

So, if consumer behaviour trends are anything to go by, the new normal might not be too dissimilar from the old. It\u2019s doubtful, for example, that we would tolerate flying less<\/a> when travel is proven safe again. This doesn\u2019t bode well for the planet.<\/p>\n

If international travel is going to \u201cbuild back better<\/a>\u201d, communities, governments and the global tourism industry must come up with a transformative plan that is workable and helps drive traveller behaviour change and decarbonisation.<\/p>\n

The pandemic has given us a chance for a reset \u2014 we should make the most of the opportunity.\"The<\/p>\n

Joseph M. Cheer<\/a>, Professor in Sustainable Tourism, Wakayama University<\/a><\/em>; Colin Michael Hall<\/a>, Professor in Tourism and Marketing, University of Canterbury<\/a><\/em>, and Jarkko Saarinen<\/a>, Professor in Human Geography (Tourism Studies), University of Oulu<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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