In 2016, it seemed to some like the world turned upside down.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump was elected by a slim margin<\/a> to the White House. The Brexit referendum<\/a> pushing the United Kingdom to leave the European Union passed. A year later, Marine LePen, a far-right xenophobic candidate, made a surprising showing in the French election<\/a>.<\/p>\n Many of the explanations for this seemingly strange historic turn are based on short-term events. The pundits focus on simple observations, poll and survey numbers<\/a> and the latest outrage on social media that might ephemerally change a voter\u2019s mind. This kind of punditry essentially turns politics into a horse race.<\/p>\n In my 2019 book, The Great Disruption: Understanding the Populist Forces Behind Trump, Brexit, and LePen<\/em><\/a>, I point out that populism has occurred throughout history, from Julius Caesar and Napoleon to Andrew Jackson, Juan Per\u00f3n and Adolf Hitler.<\/p>\n The basic parameters are as follows: long-term, widespread disillusionment threatens the basic legitimacy of a political economic system. Charismatic outsider figures appear to claim they\u2019ll save the day, promising, as Trump did, that they alone can fix it and will engage in widespread reforms (\u201cdrain the swamp<\/a>\u201d). The most potent weapon is scapegoating unseen forces (\u201ccriminal immigrants\u201d or the \u201cDeep State\u201d); once those forces are stopped, they argue, we will return to better times (\u201cmake America great again\u201d). False nostalgia ignores what life was really like.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s story fits the historical pattern to a tee.<\/p>\n He is a wealthy scion, but one who never held political office. He has oratory and entertainment skills, particularly in front of a large crowd; what appears as negativity is a lightning rod for some who have nursed decades of pent-up frustrations and a feeling of being unheard.<\/p>\n Like all populists with no track record, Trump could not only condemn the system but promise the moon: universal health care at low cost; a renewed respect for American power around the world while making others pay their \u201cfair share\u201d; getting rid of lobbyists and special interests; rocket-fuelled economic growth; stopping crime and helping minorities to move up; balancing the budget, etc.<\/p>\nCycle of populism repeats throughout history<\/h2>\n
\nThe message resonates because a significant proportion of society no longer believes the existing system is capable of reform. Populist leaders step in to embody the needs and frustrations of large disaffected groups without representing anything in particular.<\/p>\nScapegoating<\/h2>\n