{"id":244199,"date":"2020-02-06T01:07:16","date_gmt":"2020-02-06T06:07:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/?p=244199"},"modified":"2020-02-06T01:07:16","modified_gmt":"2020-02-06T06:07:16","slug":"oscar-predictions-can-parasite-upset-1917","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/2020\/02\/06\/oscar-predictions-can-parasite-upset-1917\/","title":{"rendered":"Oscar Predictions: Can ‘Parasite’ upset ‘1917’?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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FILE: Director and stars of ‘Parasite’ at an April 2019 press event. (Photo by Kinocine PARKJEAHWAN4wiki\/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

NEW YORK \u2014 Ahead of Sunday’s 92nd Academy Awards, Associated Press Film Writer Jake Coyle shares his predictions for a ceremony with a lot of locks but the potential for a few surprises.<\/p>\n

BEST PICTURE<\/p>\n

The Nominees: \u201cFord v Ferrari,\u201d \u201cThe Irishman,\u201d \u201cJojo Rabbit,\u201d \u201cJoker,\u201d \u201cLittle Women,\u201d \u201cMarriage Story,\u201d \u201c1917,\u201d \u201cOnce Upon a Time … in Hollywood,\u201d \u201cParasite\u201d<\/p>\n

Will Win: \u201cParasite\u201d<\/p>\n

Should Win: \u201cParasite\u201d<\/p>\n

Should Have Been a Contender: \u201cThe Last Black Man in San Francisco\u201d<\/p>\n

The last-arriving contender, Sam Mendes’ World War I film \u201c1917,\u201d has seemingly, fittingly run away with it. The top-prize winner of the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild and the BAFTAs, \u201c1917\u201d is the clear favourite. But I think Bong Joon Ho’s universally beloved \u201cParasite\u201d could pull off an upset that would rank alongside the underdog win of \u201cMoonlight\u201d three years ago. Taking best ensemble from the Screen Actors Guild showed that \u201cParasite\u201d has perhaps the most important vote in the actors (they make up the largest percentage of the film academy), and academy membership has also grown more international in recent years. The time may be right for the first foreign-language film to win best picture, and \u201cParasite\u201d deserves it.<\/p>\n

BEST ACTRESS<\/p>\n

The Nominees: Cynthia Erivo, \u201cHarriet\u201d; Scarlett Johansson, \u201cMarriage Story\u201d; Saoirse Ronan, \u201cLittle Women\u201d; Charlize Theron, \u201cBombshell\u201d; Renee Zellweger, \u201cJudy<\/p>\n

Will Win: Renee Zellweger<\/p>\n

Should Win: Saoirse Ronan<\/p>\n

Should Have Been a Contender: Alfre Woodard, \u201cClemency\u201d<\/p>\n

Zellweger is already a winner for \u201cCold Mountain\u201d in 2004. But her fragile yet powerhouse performance as Judy Garland in \u201cJudy\u201d is that irresistible thing: a comeback story. The part reverberates with Zellweger’s own history; she and Garland are both former American sweethearts. She’s a fine choice, but the verve and velocity of Ronan’s great performance in \u201cLittle Women\u201d shouldn’t be overlooked. Formidable as this category is, it would have been better with Woodard’s fully inhabited, devastatingly still performance as a prison warden in the spare \u201cClemency\u201d \u2014 not to mention Lupita Nyong’o’s ferocious double act in \u201cUs.\u201d<\/p>\n

BEST ACTOR<\/p>\n

The Nominees: Antonio Banderas, \u201cPain and Glory\u201d; Leonardo DiCaprio, \u201cOnce Upon a Time … in Hollywood\u201d; Adam Driver, \u201cMarriage Story\u201d; Joaquin Phoenix, \u201cJoker\u201d; Jonathan Pryce, \u201cThe Two Popes\u201d<\/p>\n

Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix<\/p>\n

Should Win: Adam Driver<\/p>\n

Should Have Been a Contender: Andre Holland, \u201cHigh Flying Bird\u201d<\/p>\n

After several years of lethargy, best actor is the year’s most competitive category. The next five options \u2014 including Adam Sandler (\u201cUncut Gems\u201d) and Eddie Murphy (\u201cDolemite Is My Name\u201d) \u2014 are equally good. Phoenix, like all of this year’s acting favourites, has been the clear front-runner for some time, for his morose yet limber Joker. But Driver’s performance in \u201cMarriage Story\u201d is the real show-stopper here; a more nuanced and rewarding performance that culminates beautifully in song and tears. A shout-out also to the exceptional Holland, whose guileful, fast-talking NBA agent in \u201cHigh Flying Bird\u201d felt like a thrilling fast break.<\/p>\n

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS<\/p>\n

The Nominees: Kathy Bates, \u201cRichard Jewell\u201d; Laura Dern, \u201cMarriage Story\u201d; Scarlett Johansson, \u201cJojo Rabbit\u201d; Florence Pugh, \u201cLittle Women\u201d; Margot Robbie, \u201cBombshell\u201d<\/p>\n

Will Win: Laura Dern<\/p>\n

Should Win: Laura Dern<\/p>\n

Should Have Been a Contender: Zhao Shuzhen, \u201cThe Farewell\u201d<\/p>\n

Dern has won every precursor award ahead of the Oscars, and is poised to win her first Academy Award. That’s cause for celebration. Dern has been one of the finest actresses in Hollywood for decades, and her fearsome divorce attorney in \u201cMarriage Story\u201d is indelible, particularly her fabulous monologue on the double-standards of modern marriage. But this category is also missing some worthy actresses, including Jennifer Lopez (\u201cHustlers\u201d) and Shuzhen, who played the grandmother unaware of her own cancer diagnosis in Lulu Wang’s tender family drama \u201cThe Farewell.\u201d<\/p>\n

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR<\/p>\n

The Nominees: Tom Hanks, \u201cA Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood\u201d; Anthony Hopkins, \u201cThe Two Popes\u201d; Al Pacino, \u201cThe Irishman\u201d; Joe Pesci, \u201cThe Irishman\u201d; Brad Pitt, \u201cOnce Upon a Time … in Hollywood\u201d<\/p>\n

Will Win: Brad Pitt<\/p>\n

Should Win: Brad Pitt<\/p>\n

Should Have Been a Contender: Wesley Snipes, \u201cDolemite Is My Name\u201d<\/p>\n

Nothing is more certain this year than Pitt’s win for \u201cOnce Upon a Time … in Hollywood,\u201d a movie that perfectly showcases Pitt’s sly charisma. His march toward his first acting Oscar has been fun, too, in a string of acceptance speeches (thanks to an apparent joke writer helping him out) filled with memorable one-liners. The talent in this category is extraordinary \u2014 Pesci or Hanks would win most years \u2014 but it’s still a shame there wasn’t room for Snipes’ irresistible prima donna actor-turned-director in \u201cDolemite Is My Name\u201d or Rob Morgan’s powerful death row inmate in \u201cJust Mercy.\u201d<\/p>\n

DIRECTOR<\/p>\n

The Nominees: Martin Scorsese, \u201cThe Irishman\u201d; Todd Phillips, \u201cJoker\u201d; Sam Mendes, \u201c1917\u201d; Quentin Tarantino, \u201cOnce Upon a Time … in Hollywood\u201d; Bong Joon Ho, \u201cParasite\u201d<\/p>\n

Will Win: Sam Mendes<\/p>\n

Should Win: Martin Scorsese<\/p>\n

Should Have Been a Contender: Marielle Heller, \u201cA Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood\u201d<\/p>\n

Mendes appears the favourite here for the technical acumen of his seemingly-one-take \u201c1917.\u201d The pristine command of Bong would be a better choice but so would the colossal achievement of Scorsese in \u201cThe Irishman.\u201d He has won best director only once before. And in 2019, Scorsese not only produced a career-crowning masterwork but mounted a passionate defence for the future of cinema. Greta Gerwig deserved to be among the nominees here for her thrillingly vibrant \u201cLittle Women,\u201d but so did Marielle Heller (\u201cA Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood\u201d), whose talent with texture, performance and authenticity doesn’t announce itself, and can go underappreciated.<\/p>\n

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY<\/p>\n

The Nominees: \u201cKnives Out,\u201d Rian Johnson; \u201cMarriage Story,\u201d Noah Baumbach; \u201c1917,\u201d Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns; \u201cOnce Upon a Time … in Hollywood,\u201d Quentin Tarantino; \u201cParasite,\u201d Bong Joon Ho, Jin Won Han<\/p>\n

Will Win: \u201cParasite\u201d<\/p>\n

Should Win: \u201cMarriage Story\u201d<\/p>\n

Should Have Been a Contender: \u201cPain and Glory,\u201d Pedro Almodovar<\/p>\n

A screenplay win for \u201cParasite\u201d would signal a real chance for a best-picture victory. But also worthy here are two deeply personal scripts: Baumbach’s stirring portrait of divorce \u201cMarriage Story\u201d and Almodovar’s unfortunately overlooked \u201cPain and Glory,\u201d a sublime, autobiographical work.<\/p>\n

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY<\/p>\n

The Nominees: \u201cThe Irishman,\u201d Steven Zaillian; \u201cJojo Rabbit,\u201d Taika Waititi; \u201cJoker,\u201d Todd Phillips, Scott Silver; \u201cLittle Women,\u201d Greta Gerwig; \u201cThe Two Popes,\u201d Anthony McCarten<\/p>\n

Will Win: \u201cJojo Rabbit\u201d<\/p>\n

Should Win: \u201cLittle Women\u201d<\/p>\n

Should Have Been a Contender: \u201cThe Laundromat,\u201d Scott Z. Burns<\/p>\n

Waititi’s clever, poignant script for the Nazi Germany coming-of-age romp \u201cJojo Rabbit\u201d appears to have the edge here. There is understandably wide respect for Waititi’s idiosyncratic and daring sensibility. Yet, Gerwig’s script inventively pulled apart Louisa May Alcott’s much-adapted novel \u2014only to put it back together again.<\/p>\n

DOCUMENTARY<\/p>\n

The Nominees: \u201cAmerican Factory,\u201d Julia Rieichert, Steven Bognar; \u201cThe Cave,\u201d Feras Fayyad; \u201cThe Edge of Democracy,\u201d Petra Costa; \u201cFor Sama,\u201d Waad Al-Kateab, Edward Watts; \u201cHoneyland,\u201d Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov<\/p>\n

Will Win: \u201cAmerican Factory\u201d<\/p>\n

Should Win: \u201cHoneyland\u201d<\/p>\n

Should Have Been a Contender: \u201cMaiden,\u201d \u201cRolling Thunder Revue\u201d<\/p>\n

The sheer number of great documentaries being made today can hardly be accommodated by one category. Just for starters the snubs here include the uplifting \u201cMaiden,\u201d about an all-female crew in a worldwide 1989 yachting race; Scorsese’s fiery Dylan documentary \u201cRolling Thunder Revue\u201d and the enthralling archival project \u201cApollo 11.\u201d \u201cAmerican Factory,\u201d the first film released by Barack and Michelle Obama’s Higher Ground Productions, is the most likely winner. But \u201cHoneyland,\u201d about a singular Macedonia beekeeper, is exquisitely intimate and yet resonates with global environmental allegory.<\/p>\n

INTERNATIONAL FILM<\/p>\n

The Nominees: \u201cCorpus Christi,\u201d Jan Komasa; \u201cHoneyland,\u201d Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov; \u201cLes Miserables,\u201d Ladj Ly; \u201cPain and Glory,\u201d Pedro Almodovar; \u201cParasite,\u201d Bong Joon Ho<\/p>\n

Will Win: \u201cParasite\u201d<\/p>\n

Should Win: \u201cHoneyland\u201d<\/p>\n

Should Have Been a Contender: \u201cPortrait of a Lady on Fire\u201d<\/p>\n

This will be an easy win for \u201cParasite,\u201d with potentially bigger awards to come. But little in this awards season was more disappointing than the lack of attention for Celine Sciamma’s \u201cPortrait of a Lady on Fire.\u201d The period French romance, my favourite film of 2019, narrowly missed out on being France’s submission. (France instead chose the muscular police procedural \u201cLes Miserables.\u201d) Audiences will at least have a chance to catch up to Sciamma’s sensational film when it properly opens in theatres next week.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NEW YORK \u2014 Ahead of Sunday’s 92nd Academy Awards, Associated Press Film Writer Jake Coyle shares his predictions for a …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":244200,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,106],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-244199","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-entertainment","category-hollywood","mauthors-jake-coyle","mauthors-the-associated-press"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/244199","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=244199"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/244199\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":244202,"href":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/244199\/revisions\/244202"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/244200"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=244199"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=244199"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=244199"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}