{"id":18111,"date":"2014-07-04T18:27:16","date_gmt":"2014-07-04T10:27:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/?p=18111"},"modified":"2014-07-04T18:27:16","modified_gmt":"2014-07-04T10:27:16","slug":"forget-positive-job-numbers-politicians-swap-blame-hedge-bets-heading-into-midterm-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/2014\/07\/04\/forget-positive-job-numbers-politicians-swap-blame-hedge-bets-heading-into-midterm-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"Forget positive job numbers; politicians swap blame, hedge bets heading into midterm elections"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"us<\/a><\/p>\n

WASHINGTON\u2014The top jobs numbers for June would have seemed to be cause for some appreciation. After all, the unemployment rate dipped to 6.1 per cent, the lowest in six years, and hiring showed five months of steady growth.<\/p>\n

But the public continues to perceive the economy as poor.<\/p>\n

So, heading into a midterm campaign season, the politicians on Thursday hedged their bets and pointed fingers.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the voting booth, economic perception beats economic statistics every time,\u201d Republican pollster Whit Ayres said.<\/p>\n

Indeed, after five months of steady job growth and after hitting a six-year low in unemployment, the reaction in Washington Thursday was a collective, \u201cYeah, but …\u201d<\/p>\n

Even President Barack Obama, who would be eager to take credit for an economy on the mend, felt compelled to throw in a dampening caveat as he drew attention to the 288,000 jobs created in June, to the lower 6.1 per cent unemployment rate and to the fastest job growth since 1999.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs much progress as has been made, there are still folks out there who are struggling,\u201d he said Thursday. \u201cWe still have not seen as much increase in income and wages as we\u2019d like to see. A lot of folks are still digging themselves out of challenges that arose out of the Great Recession.\u201d<\/p>\n

To be sure, there are real economic reasons to be wary, or at least not euphoric, over the most recent report.<\/p>\n

The labour market remains weak, with a labour force participation rate stuck at 62.8 per cent, the lowest since 1978. Construction jobs reached their highest since June 2009 but are still more than 1.7 million jobs below its 2006 peak, according to an analysis of jobs numbers by the Associated General Contractors of America.<\/p>\n

Moreover, hiring has tended to be predominantly in low wage jobs, leading to stagnant wage growth, and the number of hours worked per week has not changed.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe headline number masks the lingering structural weakness in the U.S. labour market,\u201d said Lindsey Piegza, a chief economist at the Sterne Agee brokerage.<\/p>\n

\u201cEven if we saw June\u2019s rate of job growth every month from here on out, we still wouldn\u2019t get back to health in the labour market for another 2 1\/2 years,\u201d said Heidi Shierholz of the liberal Economic Policy Institute.<\/p>\n

More important, beyond those statistics, are public perceptions of the economy.<\/p>\n

An Associated Press-GfK poll in May, found that the share of those surveyed who called the economy \u201cgood\u201d stood at 34 per cent, while 65 per cent described it as poor. That\u2019s about the same as it has been all year, though slightly above where it was during the partial government shutdown in October. Few expect improvement in the economy over the next 12 months, and more expected it to get worse.<\/p>\n

The perceptions have a partisan hue, as well.<\/p>\n

Economic confidence as measured by Gallup found Democrats had the highest and Republicans the lowest.<\/p>\n

In the face of that, politicians are not likely to cheer an economic number.<\/p>\n

Consider this from Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota: \u201cToo many working families are still treading water. Our focus now must be on solutions that strengthen the middle class and give more hardworking Americans a fair shot by raising the minimum wage, making college more affordable and investing in workforce training.\u201d<\/p>\n

And this from Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus: \u201cWe\u2019re glad to see some Americans found work last month, but we can\u2019t rest until jobs are easy to find. That\u2019s why Republicans have passed dozens of jobs bills in the House of Representatives. Sadly, Democrats in Washington, D.C., have other priorities.\u201d<\/p>\n

What\u2019s more, Democrats and Republicans want to blame each other for not enacting policies they say would create more jobs. So Obama complains about Republicans not increasing the minimum wage and Republican House Speaker John Boehner says Obama has failed to lead on issues such as trade and workplace flexibility.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn order for us to make real progress, the president must do more than criticize,\u201d Boehner said.<\/p>\n

With the economy still emerging as the top issue of the day with a plurality of voters, each side will continue to brand the other as uncompromising obstructionists. And even if the economic trends show improvement, the fall campaign season may be coming too quickly to change the battleground.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt takes a long time for economic statistics to be felt in people\u2019s pocketbooks,\u201d Ayres said. \u201cIt may be too late at this point to affect the political environment of the midterm elections.\u201d<\/p>\n

What\u2019s more, neither side has an incentive to tout much progress.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor Republicans, the reality is that they are not going to want to give credit for anything that Obama should be credited for,\u201d said Ken Warren, a political scientist and pollster at St. Louis University. \u201cAs for Democrats, when the public feels some way in the polls and it\u2019s not going to play well, even the Democrats in this case would see a downside.<\/p>\n

\u201cTo contradict what the people think can be perceived as liability.\u201d<\/p>\n

Associated Press Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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