{"id":146151,"date":"2018-01-14T21:34:23","date_gmt":"2018-01-15T02:34:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/?p=146151"},"modified":"2018-01-14T21:34:23","modified_gmt":"2018-01-15T02:34:23","slug":"thai-junta-boss-eyes-staying-on-with-little-stopping-him","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/canadianinquirer.net\/v1\/2018\/01\/14\/thai-junta-boss-eyes-staying-on-with-little-stopping-him\/","title":{"rendered":"Thai junta boss eyes staying on with little stopping him"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Prayut<\/a>
Prayut Chan-o-cha, WTTC Global Summit, 2017 (Photo By World Travel & Tourism Council – H.E. General Prayut Chan-o-cha, Prime Minister, Kingdom of Thailand, CC BY 2.0)<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

BANGKOK\u2014 When Prayuth Chan-Ocha seized control of Thailand in a military coup, he vigorously denounced politicians as responsible for the country’s ills and positioned himself and his fellow generals as the cure.<\/p>\n

Four years on, with many of the country’s problems still festering and the public growing impatient for long-delayed elections, the junta leader made a declaration that for many seemed to confirm suspicions that he planned to stay in power long past any polls.<\/p>\n

\u201cI am no longer a soldier. Understand? I’m just a politician who used to be a soldier,\u201d the 63-year-old former-army-chief-turned-prime-minister told reporters at the turn of the year, adding, \u201cBut I still have a soldier’s traits.\u201d<\/p>\n

The world’s only nation still under formal military rule, Thailand is under increasing pressure both at home and abroad to return to civilian governance. The message now appears clear: In one form or another, the gruff general wants to be that civilian.<\/p>\n

Should Prayuth decide to stay on, there’s little stopping him. For one, he still holds absolute power under rules he implemented when he staged the 2014 coup and he could simply put off elections yet again.<\/p>\n

But even if he decides to follow his latest timeline and hold polls later this year, he and his junta have carefully crafted a strategy to ensure the military commands politics, society and even the economy for decades to come.<\/p>\n

While Prayuth has not flatly stated whether he will seek to lead the next government, several days after declaring himself a politician he remarked: \u201cI can be whatever you want me to be. I can be it all.\u201d<\/p>\n

Thailand has suffered more than a decade of political unrest and upheaval, including two coups and numerous rounds of sometimes deadly street protests, as its conservative establishment struggled with the grassroots political success of billionaire businessman Thaksin Shinawatra and later his sister Yingluck Shinawatra.<\/p>\n

The Shinawatras fundamentally changed Thai politics with populist policies aimed at wooing the country’s poor rural majority, but their time in power was also marred by allegations of corruption. Both Thaksin and Yingluck watched their governments topple in coups and both now live in exile to avoid court convictions they say were politically motivated.<\/p>\n

To prevent a return to what it says was a \u201clost decade\u201d of national peril, the junta drafted a constitution that neuters political parties in favour of non-elected bodies and even allows for an appointed prime minister. The junta itself gets to appoint many who would do the appointing, including the entire upper house of Parliament, which would also have some seats directly reserved for the military.<\/p>\n

Powerful Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, another former army chief and key junta member, said last week that he thought Prayuth should lead the next government but seemed to hint it should be by running in the election. \u201cIt must be the voice of the people,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Even if a traditional politician or party were to come to power, they would be legally bound to follow a junta-devised national strategy that encompasses the next 20 years and that critics say will put a military stamp across a broad spectrum of future public policy.<\/p>\n

For some in Thailand \u00a0where the junta has banned protests and political gatherings \u00a0all this spells doomsday for democracy.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur democratic future is going down the drain. Democratic space is closed, and public space is also closing. I don’t know if we can find any hope in the years ahead,\u201d Naruemon Thabchumpon, a political scientist at Chiang Mai University, told an\u00a0international\u00a0conference. \u201cBut we must at least understand the path along which we are going. We can’t just murmur and complain in our backyards.\u201d<\/p>\n

The military views things very differently, arguing that it intervened to save the country from a possible civil war as deep cleavages in society erupted into violence, and from corrupt politicians who manipulated a flawed political process.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe military stepping in was the last resort,\u201d Lt. Gen. Weerachon Sukhontapatipak, the deputy regime spokesman, said in an interview. \u201cIt may seem contradictory to say we staged a coup to restore democracy but it is indeed the case in Thailand. Military intervention this time, we hope, will be the last time.\u201d<\/p>\n

Similar arguments had been voiced in the past. The self-styled \u201cLand of Smiles\u201d has witnessed 12 coups since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932. Uniformed or retired military men have helmed the country for 58 of the 86 years since despite minimal threat of foreign aggression: The last invasion, by the Burmese, occurred 250 years ago.<\/p>\n

Critics contend the coup has resulted in the military’s strongest grip since the Cold War era of the 1970s.<\/p>\n

\u201cThailand is heading at full speed to a dark, dictatorial past,\u201d said Brad Adams, Asia director of the U.S.-based Human Rights Watch, noting that the country has gone from \u201cdemocratic governance concerned about human rights to dictatorial military rule that systematically prosecutes and imprisons activists.\u201d<\/p>\n

The junta has placed a particular emphasis on going after violators of the harsh les majeste law, which forbids insults to the royal family, and the cases are now heard in military courts rather than civilian. About 120 people have been arrested since the 2014 coup including a 14-year-old boy, a prominent human rights lawyer facing up to 171 years in prison for Facebook comments, and a Buddhist scholar who questioned whether a heroic battle 400 years ago actually took place.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, and as expected in a society as polarized as Thailand, Prayuth’s administration has proved popular among some segments of the population. \u201cSome good, some bad,\u201d is not infrequently heard among Bangkok residents, citing as positive some the junta’s policies but especially its having halted \u201ckhwaam wun wai,\u201d chaos and confrontation, a fear deeply rooted in Thai culture.<\/p>\n

Some Bangkok residents say they still have nightmares about political protests that ended with bloodshed on their doorsteps, buildings torched, and their businesses shuttered.<\/p>\n

The junta’s pledge to get tough on corruption initially earned it some praise, but repeated scandals involving its members \u00a0including a current saga involving the deputy prime minister’s penchant for luxury watches and bejeweled rings \u00a0has added to public skepticism.<\/p>\n

While Thais have in the past risen up against military rule \u00a0there were deadly protests against it in both the 1970s and early 1990s \u00a0many have also become conditioned to regard army control as normal and some soldiers have come to see it as their right.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is a political culture of acquiescence, a deep legacy of authoritarianism,\u201d said Paul Chambers, a political scientist at northern Thailand’s Naresuan University.<\/p>\n

Historically the traditional Bangkok-centred elite \u00a0the military, monarchy and senior bureaucrats \u00a0have \u201cpermitted democracy to come but only a form of democracy which won’t threaten their interests,\u201d he said. \u201cYou see in Thailand a defective democracy or an ousted democracy.\u201d<\/p>\n

Which of these will emerge if and when elections are finally held is being debated.<\/p>\n

Among the uncertainties this time is the future relations between the military and new King Maha Vajiralongkorn, who has shown signs of expanding the monarchy’s powers since his father died in 2016 after a 70-year reign, including some last-minute changes to the junta-drafted constitution.<\/p>\n

Another is whether deep social and economic rifts \u00a0which the junta has done little to heal \u00a0can be bridged. Thailand has some of the worst economic inequality in the world and long-standing tensions between the haves and have-nots remain in check only out of fear of the junta. In many poorer provinces, the home to the Shinawatra family’s power base, there is simmering anger and many privately denounce the military and Bangkok elite.<\/p>\n

Some analysts argue that while the military and conservative forces may now seem entrenched, perpetual military rule is impossible in today’s globalized Thailand where the spread of information through social media is transforming society.<\/p>\n

For the foreseeable future, political commentator Thitinan Pongsudhirak says the best available option would be a civil-military power-sharing along with reforms of traditional institutions in favour of strengthening democracy.<\/p>\n

\u201cManipulating the constitution and staying in power at all costs are likely to lead to an inevitable showdown with forces from political parties and civil society,\u201d he recently wrote. Anything short of a compromise \u201cwill keep Thailand stuck in a cul-de-sac, going into yet another circle to nowhere.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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