MANILA – An improvement in economic performance is expected to continue even if it remains in contraction in the fourth quarter of 2020 while positive growth can start only next year.
In a virtual briefing Tuesday, Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) chief economist Michael Ricafort said he forecasts the fourth-quarter output to stay between -8 to -9 percent while it is projected to range between 6 to 7 percent next year.
“The estimate for this year is somewhere between -9.5 percent to -7 percent,” he said.
The government on Tuesday reported that growth, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), posted an -11.5 percent print in the third quarter, better than the -16.9 percent in the previous quarter.
In the first nine months this year, growth contracted by around 10 percent, deeper than the -5.5 percent full year projected by economic managers.
Authorities believe that the “worst is over” for the domestic economy this year as continued reopening boosts economic activities.
Domestic output is expected to recover between 6.5 to 7.5 percent next year before eventually getting back on track on its original growth path by 2022.