MOSCOW – The price of oil in September will remain low, perhaps even with a slight decrease from the current levels below USD40 per barrel, experts told TASS.
In October, the downward trend is likely to be interrupted and a gradual growth will begin, which will accelerate in November and December, they said.
“There will not be a serious decline in the oil price in September — it is unlikely to fall closer to USD35 per barrel. Now there is a revision, according to the forecast, for practically all agencies with a drawdown (oil prices) in September and October. In November, we will enter a further growth trend,” Andrei Polishchuk, an analyst at Raiffeisen Bank, said on Friday.
He added that as early as the fourth quarter of 2020, the price of oil may rise to USD47 per barrel.
The research director of VYGON Consulting Maria Belova does not see any grounds for a further decrease in oil prices in the current conditions.
She believes that in today’s conditions, the equilibrium oil price is in the range of USD40-42 per barrel.
The head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artem Deev added that by the end of 2020, the average oil price will be from USD40 to USD50 per barrel, but it will not exceed this level.
Dmitry Marinchenko, director of the Fitch group for natural resources and commodities, is less optimistic.
He estimates the oil price will be higher than the current one but on average in 2020, it will be about USD41 per barrel and next year, it will rise to USD45, but on condition that the general trend towards opening up the world economy will continue. (TASS)