MANILA – The country’s basic reproduction number or r0 (read as r-naught) for the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) in Metro Manila is currently below 1, while the rest of the country is at 1.2, health experts from the University of the Philippines (UP) said on Thursday.
In an online briefing by the Department of Health (DOH), Prof. Guido David from the UP Institute of Mathematics said the r0 shows a disease’s transmission potential, with r0 of less than 1 showing low transmission rate while an r0 above 1 showing high transmission of disease.
David, a member of the UP OCTA Research Team, said their group’s latest r0 for the whole country is currently at 1.2, with a forecast of 40,000 new cases and 1,850 deaths due to Covid-19 by June 30 based on the current r0.
However, he added that the actual new Covid-19 cases and deaths may be lower if the country’s health situation improves through vigilant adherence to health guidelines.
For Metro Manila, he said the r0 was estimated between a low 0.96 to a high 1.2, with the difference caused by a lag on the data received from the DOH.
“This classifies the National Capital Region (NCR) as a medium to a high-risk area,” David said.
With an r0 at 0.96, he said the forecast for Metro Manila is 16,500 new cases and 1,070 deaths caused by Covid-19 by June 30. With an r0 at 1.2, he said their group forecasts 20,500 new cases and 1,200 deaths caused by the respiratory disease in the same time frame.
Meanwhile, the infection rate at Cebu remains high at an r0 of almost 2.
“Sa Cebu naman, medyo mataas yung r0 ngayon eh, it’s almost 2. So high-risk area ang classification natin sa Cebu–yung projection namin ay 11,000 cases and 90 deaths by June 30 (In Cebu, the r0 is a bit high at almost 2. So, we classify Cebu as a high-risk area. Our projection sits at 11,000 new cases and 90 deaths by June 30),” David said.
Prof. Ranjit Rye from the UP Department of Political Science said the UP OCTA Research Team releases their r0 projections and forecast every week and enjoined the public to help lower the country’s r0 by strictly following health guidelines such as physical distancing and wearing of facemasks in public.
“What we do as individuals, what we do as citizens, is more important now than any intervention government does in the fight against Covid-19,” Rye said.
He added that proper hygiene must be followed such as frequent handwashing, covering one’s mouth when coughing, and taking care of one’s own health.
Covid-19 cases now at 24,175
DOH spokesperson Maria Singh-Vergeire said there were 253 reported fresh cases of Covid-19 in the country, with 35 in NCR, 66 in Region 7, and 152 in other regions.
This, in addition to 190 late cases, or those patients who received their test results 4 days or more after they were tested.
Of these late cases, 48 were in NCR, 6 in Region 7, and 136 in other areas.
Both the fresh and late cases total to 443 new cases of Covid-19, bringing the country’s total to 24,175.
Aside from the new cases, there were 270 recoveries, with the country now at a total of 5,165 recoveries.
A total of nine deaths were also reported, bringing the country’s death toll at 1,036.