MANILA – The growth normalization of the Philippine economy may be expected by 2022, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin Diokno said on Thursday.
Diokno said the third quarter 2020 growth is expected to be better than the -16.5 percent in the second quarter, and 2021 will be a recovery year.
“We expect the economy to bounce back by maybe between 6.5-7.5 percent (in 2021) but that means we have not fully recovered. Full recovery will take place in 2022,” he said during a virtual briefing.
Economic managers forecast a 5.5-percent contraction for the domestic economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), for this year on account of the pandemic.
Pre-pandemic, the domestic economy posted expansions of over 6 percent.
Based on the announcement of the inter-agency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) last December, the GDP was projected to accelerate at 6.5 to 7.5 percent from 2020-2022.
In a meeting last May 12, these figures have been revised to -3.4 to -2 percent for 2020, 7.1 to 8.1 percent for 2021, and 7 to 8 percent for 2022.
However, in a meeting last May 27, economic managers changed the 2021 and 2022 growth projections to 8 to 9 percent and 6 to 7 percent, respectively.
Revisions were again made last July 28, with the 2020 growth projection now between 4.5 to 6.6 percent, and the 2021 to 2022 figures between 6.5 to 7.5 percent.