New Brunswick’s Liberals and Progressive Conservatives were locked in a neck-and-neck race as the ballots were counted at the conclusion of an election campaign that appeared to be a referendum on Liberal Leader Brian Gallant’s reputation as a big-spending premier.
The 36-year-old, telegenic premier campaigned on a platform that includes 123 promises and $150 million in infrastructure funding. It also includes a promised four-year freeze on NB Power rates for residential and small-business customers and a pledge to raise the minimum wage to $14.
By contrast, Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs — a 64-year-old former Irving Oil executive — campaigned on a tight-fisted platform that calls for “common-sense ideas that don’t cost much.”
In early returns, the Liberals were leading or elected in 20 ridings, the Tories had 22, the People’s Alliance had four and the Greens with three.
The leader of the People’s Alliance, Kris Austin, won his seat in Fredericton-Grand Lake, a breakthrough for a third party that was contesting its third election.
The party has never won more than three per cent of the popular vote. However, the polls suggested the party was in third place this time.
Austin’s party has taken aim at official bilingualism, saying the dual systems in health care and school busing are costing the province too much money, and called for more efficiencies.
Higgs and Gallant were also winners in their own ridings.
On the campaign trail, Gallant and Higgs commanded most of the attention, and the two men couldn’t have been more different.
Gallant, a lawyer and the youngest premier in Canada, is a fresh-faced, fluently bilingual champion of gender equality, healthy eating and exercise. Recently married, the former tennis instructor was once crowned Mr. New Brunswick at a provincial competition.
Higgs is a dapper, grey-haired former finance minister and grandfather who has described citizens as customers, and has likened governing to running a business “and getting results.”
During the 32-day campaign, the unilingual Tory leader accused Gallant of using the public purse to buy votes.
Gallant countered by claiming Higgs would cut $500 million from the province’s budget while eliminating up to 2,000 public service jobs.
In a province where the third parties weren’t expected to win more than a few seats, the choice between the Liberals and the Tories was a stark one.
Still, the polls were suggesting a tight race that could be decided by a handful of seats. Both the Liberals and the Tories appeared to lose support as the campaign progressed, with the third parties tapping into a sense of voter discontent.
At the close of the campaign, the Liberals held 24 seats in the 49-seat legislature, the Progressive Conservatives had 21 and the Green party had one seat. There was one Independent and two vacancies.
A total of 25 seats is needed for a majority.
Gallant is seeking a second consecutive majority government, but recent history isn’t on his side. No government has won two terms in office since 2003.
To be sure, the winning party will be faced with making some tough choices. The province has been saddled with 11 consecutive projected budget deficits. Though the most recent budget was balanced, Gallant said a Liberal government would table budget deficits for two more years before returning to balance three years from now.
Higgs said he would balance the books in two years.
Meanwhile, the net debt is expected to reach $14.4 billion by the end of this fiscal year, and the province remains at the bottom of the list with Newfoundland and Labrador when it comes to economic growth.
Higgs has repeatedly warned the province that its education test scores are nothing to be proud of, health-care wait times are the worst in the country and that New Brunswick has the lowest median income in Canada.
Historical voting patterns in New Brunswick have often seen francophone areas favour Liberal candidates while anglophone areas have leaned toward the Progressive Conservatives.
As a result, the Conservatives were considered a long shot in the 16 ridings where there is a francophone majority, mainly because of Higgs’ previous ties with the now-defunct Confederation of Regions Party.
The party, which held official Opposition status between 1991 and 1995 before disappearing, was committed to repealing the provincial 1969 Official Languages Act, which cost the party support among francophones.
However, Liberal support is typically concentrated in French-speaking ridings, which has led to so-called vote inefficiency. That means the Liberals could win the popular vote but lose the election.
The only other party coming into the election with a seat in the legislature is the Greens. Leader David Coon made history by winning the party’s first-ever seat in 2014, and he was expected to hold the riding of Fredericton South.
Former Liberal Speaker Chris Collins, who was suspended from the party caucus in May over harassment allegations, is contesting Moncton Centre as an Independent, boasting an 11-year record.
The NDP, led by Jennifer McKenzie for just over a year, failed to make much of an impression on voters. The party was in last place in the most recent opinion polls.
McKenzie ran in the same Saint John riding where Elizabeth Weir was the NDP member until 2005 — the last time the party had a seat in the legislature.