The Liberals could be crushed in the next election. Why would anyone want to lead them?

Back in 2012, when Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty announced he would resign, Kathleen Wynne says many people were asking the same questions: Who would run for leadership of the provincial Liberal party and — more importantly, given its grim prospects at the time — why would anyone want to?

I made a decision to run for the leadership in that context, fully expecting that I wouldn’t win, but also that we were on a path to lose [the next election], Wynne — who succeeded McGuinty as both leader and premier — told CBC News.

So she has a little insight into why anyone would want to lead the federal Liberals following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation, even though polls suggest the party could suffer a massive defeat in the next election.

(Although Wynne was elected in 2014, she also knows what it’s like to be politically decimated, having been crushed in the 2018 vote, and being left as one of only seven Liberals elected to the legislature.)

If you expect to lose, then you are prepared to rebuild. You’re prepared to ferret out what’s wrong and try to try to solve those problems because you believe in the project that you believe in the people, Wynne said.

That fire, in the case of the next Liberal leader, may need to last for a long time — and in the political wilderness. CBC’s Poll Tracker shows the Conservatives would secure a landslide majority government if an election were held today, with the Liberals in danger of falling into third, behind the Bloc Québécois, or perhaps even fourth, behind the NDP in the seat count.

Other polls suggest the situation is so dire, the Liberals could end up losing official party status, unable to secure the 12 seats needed in the House of Commons.

The next Liberal leader might see the job as playing a long game, says Laura Stephenson, a political science professor at Western University in London, Ont.

“You think about it as ‘I’m going to come in now and I’m going to start staking my claim and I’m going to propose rebuilding … I’m not expecting to win this [election], but I’m hoping to win the next one.”’

It depends on how committed are they to public service and what are their long-term goals.

There does not appear to be a shortage of potential candidates, including former finance minister and deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland, economic adviser Mark Carney, former B.C. premier Christy Clark and government House Leader Karina Gould.

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Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University, says despite the prospect of losing big in the next election, many have been waiting for Trudeau to step aside.

The party’s fortunes are much worse than they would have been had he left two years ago. But that doesn’t mean they don’t want to try, she said.

“Because the other thing is, if you don’t do it, then what? You’re going to wait six years for your turn?”

Turnbull says she can see why someone like Gould — who, at 37, has lots of time and runway — might take on the leadership, with the understanding it may be freaking awful but that she’d be willing to do the work to rebuild.

I could see something like that … because that’s still a worthwhile project. It’s still the Liberal Party.

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But she says the decision to run really depends on where a potential candidate is in their life, which is why she questions why someone like Carney would be interested.

The former governor of both the Bank of Canada and, more recently, the Bank of England is a big mover and shaker globally. Really, you’re going to be the leader of a third-place party? Why would you do that?

She says similar questions could be asked of Freeland, who has held high-profile roles in the government.

And yet, Turbull says people who aspire to political leadership often have a very strong sense of personal efficacy.

They believe they can turn the tide and beat the odds. So there might be some people who don’t accept the predictions that many have made for the Liberal Party.

This article is republished from RCI.