No irregularity in vote ratio of presidential polls: stat experts

MANILA – Statistics experts from the University of the Philippines (UP) on Wednesday found no irregularities in the consistent voting pattern in the partial and unofficial results of the 2022 presidential race.

The UP School of Statistics said the supposed “68:32” vote ratio favoring presidential aspirant and former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. could not be used as sufficient proof of electoral fraud.

“Kung walang malinaw na konteksto, ang ganitong pattern sa porsyento ng boto ay hindi maaaring gamiting ebidensya ng pandaraya (If there is no clear context, such vote pattern could not be considered as evidence of cheating),” it said in a Facebook post.

Allegations of election cheating emerged after the quick count of partial and unofficial tally of votes showed that Marcos had a wide lead over his closest rival, Vice President Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo.

There have been claims about the alleged “68:32 magic,” which pertains to a consistent pattern of 68 percent of votes for Marcos and the remaining 32 percent of votes for Robredo.

The UP School of Statistics said the steady pattern in the unofficial outcome of the presidential race is not indicative of vote rigging.

“Hindi masasabi ng ’68:32 ratio’ trend kung mayroong pandaraya sa eleksyon (The ’68:32 ratio’ trend could not tell whether there is election cheating,” it said. “Ang mga trend sa transmission ng boto tulad ng sa ’68:32 ratio’ ay hindi ebidensya ng pandaraya sa eleksyon (The trend on vote transmission, such as the ’68:32 ratio’ is not enough evidence that there is cheating in elections).”

The university’s statistics experts added that it is “wrong” to presume that the votes have been manipulated just because Marcos retains a huge lead in the presidential derby.

“Ang hindi paggalaw ng ’68:32 ratio’ base sa cumulative totals ay hindi maituturing na irregularity. Mali ang mga kumakalat na analysis base sa cumulative o pinagsama-samang bilang ng boto sa bawat update (The consistent ’68:32′ ratio based on the cumulative totals is not tantamount to irregularity. The analysis on the cumulative total of votes in every update is wrong),” it said.

As of 7:17 p.m. Wednesday, Marcos earned 31,091,373 votes, based on the results of the partial and unofficial tally released by poll watchdog Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting (PPCRV).

Marcos was followed by Robredo, with 14,815,251 votes.

PPCRV national chairperson Myla Villanueva said there are no irregularities so far in the partial and unofficial count of votes.

The Commission on Elections also said the cheating claims in the presidential race is “hard to prove.”