BPI Securities sees PSEi at 9,000 level in 2020

FILE: BPI branch at Plaza Sta. Cruz, Carriedo, Manila which occupies the Don Roman Santos Building, former head office of Prudential Bank (Photo By noel Gonong (Wikipedia Takes Manila participant) – Uploaded from Wikipedia Takes Manila, CC BY-SA 3.0)

MANILA — The stock brokerage arm of Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) is bullish the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) will hit the 9,000 level next year, as the economy is poised to remain strong despite the expected volatility due to the US-China trade war.

“The country’s macroeconomic picture for 2020 looks promising. We believe that the uptick in government spending and continued rise in consumption will drive the country’s GDP (gross domestic product) growth,” BPI Securities President Haj Narvaez said in a statement.

Narvaez downplayed the impact of the US-China trade war, adding the Philippines may look especially attractive in case of trade war worsens given the country’s minimal reliance on exports.

“I think the biggest risk I wouldn’t say it’s internal, (but) it’s more external. So it probably still is the trade war. You know the trade war impacts sentiment which is really I think crucial for our market. I think in terms of the economy, obviously, we are shielded from that. We don’t have an export-oriented growth model, it’s more driven by consumption,” he told reporters Monday.

Narvaez also sees “promising” PSEi earnings growth in 2020, expecting it to replicate this year’s figure of about 12 percent.

Next year’s growth in earnings is likely to be fueled by the banks, property and resurgent consumer sector, he said.

“In the past, we only grew roughly 9 to 10 percent so we are very much in the sweet spot when it comes to growth and in our view, obviously strong (economic) growth is another catalyst,” he added.

Narvaez further said the PSEi can trade around 18 times, translating to an index target of 9,000 for 2020. It is currently trading at around 16 times forward earnings, near the market’s 10-year average.

He was optimistic the PSEi would end the year at 8,150 level assuming the market would gain from rallies next month.

Despite the positive prospects for next year, Narvaez said volatility is still to be expected due to the US-China trade war.

To counter adverse consequences, investors are advised to focus on stocks that offer growth on value.