Canada News
Better co-ordination and governance needed to steer Canada’s migration policies
FILE: The Honourable Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship. (Photo: Marc Miller/Facebook)
Following a historically sharp increase in immigration levels to Canada after the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada’s migration policies are shifting course under the most significant changes seen in decades. Immigration levels, which have been rising annually, will be cut for the next two years.
For the first time, total temporary migration – principally international students, temporary foreign workers and asylum claimants – will need to respect a population target. (The Quebec government, which selects economic immigrants to the province, is also committed to reducing temporary migration.)
Since 2015, the Trudeau government has been committed to population growth to counter an aging population and labour market shortages. This includes a notable post-pandemic surge that brought thousands of additional temporary foreign workers and international students in a short period of time.
Importantly, many international students have visas which allow them to work part-time during their studies and for up to three years after graduation. Many go on to become permanent residents through programs such as the Canadian Experience Class.
On July 1, 2024, Canada had 3,002,090 non-permanent residents, which is nearly double the number from two years earlier.
Population growth has led to greater demand for housing and, in turn, to higher house prices and rents. Wait times for health care and other public services have increased.
Media coverage has increasingly linked these developments to temporary migration, and public opinion has been affected.
In October 2024, Environics reported that 58 per cent of respondents believe Canada accepts too many immigrants – an increase of 31 points since 2022. A Leger survey released in August 2024 reported 78 per cent of respondents agreed that “current immigration rates are contributing to the housing availability and affordability crisis.”
On October 24 a major shift in federal policy was announced: immigration levels for 2025-27 are being reduced from 500,000 permanent residents in 2024 to 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027. The plan also includes the goal to “reduce Canada’s temporary resident volumes to five per cent of the Canadian population by the end of 2026” (compared with 7.3 per cent in mid-2024).
Did the Trudeau government not see the train coming down the tracks?
On one of the key pressures, Royal Bank of Canada analysis showed that by 2022 Canadian housing had become the least affordable that it had ever been. Other measures, such as low rental vacancies, reflected the impact of population increase. Economic growth following the COVID-19 pandemic was given priority, and the intersection of such trends with migration policy was not given sufficient weight.
International students
Canada has seen a huge increase in international university and college students: the number with active study permits rose to 1,040,985 in 2023 – a 29 per cent increase from 2022.
Many postsecondary institutions have large budgets for recruitment campaigns, scholarships and other incentives to entice potential international students. Eager to profit from Canada’s appeal, dozens of new colleges have also been established.
Media stories exposed colleges with rising numbers of international students but subpar instruction. As a former federal immigration official told me recently, there was “a failure on the part of provinces to control the postsecondary education sector.” However, as with permanent immigration levels, it took something approaching a national crisis in migration to curb rising enrolments.
In January 2024 the federal government imposed a national limit on the number of permits issued to international students in 2024 and 2025. This is expected to result in the approval of approximately 360,000 study permits in 2024 – a 35 per cent reduction from the figures recorded in 2023.
A share of the overall limit has been allocated to each province and territory which, in turn, are responsible for the allocation among designated universities and colleges. And, applicants must now include an attestation letter from the relevant provincial or territorial education authority that demonstrates to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) that there is space for them.
Provinces shifting their approach
Policy and governance changes regarding international students are also underway in certain provinces.
Ontario has the largest proportion of international students, receiving just over half the national total in 2023. Public universities and colleges account for most of the recent increase. According to a February 2024 CBC report, 12 Ontario public colleges had at least tripled their study permit numbers since 2018.
Certain private colleges in Ontario that deliver programs in partnership with public colleges have been lightning rods for controversy. A 2021 review by the provincial auditor general identified several failings: certain of these colleges had exceeded the limits on their international enrolments set by a 2019 binding policy directive of the Ministry of Colleges and Universities; and the ministry was providing insufficient oversight of such partnerships.
An updated policy directive issued in September 2023 limits total enrolment to 7,500 students across all affiliated public and private campuses. Non-compliance results in financial sanctions.
Quebec has the third-highest number of international students, with some 120,000 enrolled in 2023 – an increase of 140 per cent in ten years. Some of them hope to become permanent residents through the program for Quebec graduates. Indeed, this program has been so popular that on October 31, 2024 the Quebec government suspended applications. Applications for the skilled worker program were also suspended. Both are slated to reopen no later than June 30, 2025.
The Quebec government has taken an unprecedented step by introducing legislation (Bill 74) to allow it to limit the number of international students in its universities and colleges.
The minister responsible for the French language and integration, Jean-François Roberge, said is the measure was needed because a sharp rise in foreign students has placed undue pressure on Quebec’s public services. (He later specified that limits set under the legislation will not be “wall to wall.”) At the same time, Roberge publicly chastised an unnamed private college where enrolment increased 1,392 per cent in less than two years.
Governance should be strengthened by Bill 74, but there is a downside. Postsecondary institutions will be subject to regulatory decisions that could be politically motivated – such as directives to send international students toward institutions outside Montreal, thereby making it more onerous to enrol in Quebec’s two largest English-language universities.
Temporary foreign workers
The federal government has two broad temporary foreign worker programs: the International Mobility program and the Temporary Foreign Worker program. IRCC manages the former, while the latter is jointly administered with Economic and Social Development Canada.
While the International Mobility program allows temporary workers to be hired without a labour market impact assessment, the Temporary Foreign Worker program requires such an assessment before hiring temporary workers to demonstrate that no Canadian or permanent resident is available.
In 2023, 765,262 individuals were issued a work permit primarily for work purposes under the International Mobility program and 184,008 through the Temporary Foreign Worker program. Taken together, there was an increase of 341,877 new permits compared with the previous year.
Neither program has a cap. Rather, reductions are expected to result from program changes. For Temporary Foreign Workers, new rules will make it more difficult to hire for the low-wage stream. For the International Mobility program, post-graduation work permits will decrease due to the cap on international student permits and related changes – for example, limiting open work permits to the spouses of international students enrolled in doctoral, master’s and professional degree programs.
Although the Quebec government has indicated it intends to reduce the number of temporary foreign workers, it has little or no role in the selection of most of them. However, it approves hirings subject to a labour market impact assessment, many of which are for lower-paid positions.
In August 2024, Premier François Legault announced a six-month freeze on hirings for low-wage jobs in the Montreal area. Further reductions in temporary workers in Quebec should result from federal changes to the low-wage stream and the expected drop in post-graduation work permits.
At a news conference on October 24, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said changes will allow “our communities, our infrastructures” time to catch up to population growth.
In that context, governments need to develop joint actions to help break down administrative silos and improve coordination. A case in point concerns international students. Although governments have taken some steps, individually, other issues require a more concerted approach (including between provincial governments and postsecondary institutions).
Consideration should begiven to the merging of the two existing federal temporary worker programs within Immigration, Citizenship and Refugees Canada. The department name could be modified to reflect any change, and acknowledge explicitly the blurring of boundaries between permanent and temporary migration.
This article first appeared on Policy Options and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
