Connect with us

Business and Economy

What’s in store for the UK in 2023? Here’s one economist’s view

Published

on

people in london flag uk

While loosening banking regulations may not help the British economy, the UK government could consider concentrating on the energy transition. (File photo: Jonny Gios/Unsplash)

Last year was an eventful one for the UK which lost its longest-serving monarch, went through two prime ministers, and faced economic stagnation, financial turmoil, rampant inflation and a cost of living crisis.

To kick off 2023, UK prime minister Rishi Sunak set out five priorities, leading with pledges to halve inflation, boost economic growth and cut national debt, as well as addressing NHS waiting lists and the issue of immigrants arriving to the UK in small boats.

These pledges – if achieved – would be excellent news for the UK economy, particularly given recent forecasts for a UK recession later this year. But the bleak state of the global economy in general will also affect the outlook, as will uncertainty around ongoing industrial action by workers across the UK. Resolving this could be the best way for the government to help the economy this year.

It’s also worth pointing out that at least one of Sunak’s promises was already expected to happen anyway. While it’s currently in the double digits, inflation was already forecast to fall sharply from 10.7% in December 2022 to less than half of this figure by the end of 2023. So, whether Sunak does something about it or not, there are a number of reasons to expect inflation could come down sharply in 2023 regardless:

  • a considerable decline in global energy prices has already happened from the peak in August 2022, which is important because rising energy prices have largely driven the recent inflation spike
  • simply because of the way inflation is calculated, as the year-on-year increase in price levels fades out of the main calculation, the annual rate of inflation will come down
  • the UK economy is expected to face a prolonged recession with declining growth and increased unemployment in 2023-24, causing deflation (of course this could also cause problems for Sunak’s pledge to boost economic growth)
  • following a fairly gloomy forecast in November 2022, the Bank of England went on to tighten monetary policy further (by increasing interest rates to 3.5%) in December. This will probably encourage a reduction in spending and investment in 2023.

The UK economic outlook to 2025 with interest rates at 3%

Further rate rises are expected in 2023. In fact, the markets and the bank both expect the main rate to reach 5.2% by the end of this year. This means the bank’s November economic forecast, which was based on rates of 3%, may worsen due to an even larger contraction than previously expected. The resulting drop in spending and investment by people and businesses could then cause inflation to come down faster than the bank had predicted when rates were at 3%.

There is also some positive news on the horizon that could bring down inflation. There has been some appreciation in the pound since the huge drop caused by the September mini-budget that had brought its value to a nearly 40-year low. This could have a deflationary impact on the UK economy to some extent.

And, although less positive for workers of course, pay increases have been broadly contained, avoiding the much-feared wage-price spiral. In fact, 2022 has been one of the worst years in decades for UK wage growth. Limiting pay rises can have a deflationary effect because people have less to spend, but it also weighs on economic growth and productivity.

On the global front, the easing of COVID restrictions in China from the end of last year could also have been positive for the UK economy. If this helps ease supply chain disruptions occurring since the global height of the pandemic, it could reduce inflationary pressure in the UK and other countries that trade with China by making it easier – and therefore less costly – for people to get hold of goods.

Strikes and inflation

The points above imply that inflation may drop even faster than the Bank of England’s projections. But its recent position has been that wage growth must slow further before rates are reduced.

Strikes over pay and conditions continue in various sectors in 2023, including transport, health, education and the postal service. There is seemingly no resolution in sight for many of these pay disputes. Strikes and industrial action are not good for wider the economy either. If wages are stagnating and the economy is not performing well, productivity will suffer.

Steps taken by the government so far to try to generate growth have been questionable. For example, the recently announced Edinburgh Reforms for the banking sector, which aim to “unlock investment and turbocharge growth in towns and cities across the UK” – may threaten financial stability.

A contracting economy and rising unemployment mean the government’s finances are expected to worsen in the year ahead, with a possible fiscal deficit of around 7.1% of national income. Again, this is the opposite to what Sunak pledged in terms of cutting the national debt.

While loosening banking regulations may not help the British economy, the UK government could consider concentrating on the energy transition. A recent breakthrough in nuclear fusion by US researchers is a great example of the progress being made in the area of green technology.

While climate goals were not mentioned in Sunak’s pledges, the government has already been investing in this area. This is not going to help address the short-term financial problems the UK faces in 2023, but it could put the economy on a surer footing over the longer term.The Conversation

Muhammad Ali Nasir, Associate Professor in Economics, University of Leeds

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

xosotin chelseathông tin chuyển nhượngcâu lạc bộ bóng đá arsenalbóng đá atalantabundesligacầu thủ haalandUEFAevertonxosofutebol ao vivofutemaxmulticanaisonbethttps://bsport.fithttps://onbet88.ooohttps://i9bet.bizhttps://hi88.ooohttps://okvip.athttps://f8bet.athttps://fb88.cashhttps://vn88.cashhttps://shbet.atbóng đá world cupbóng đá inter milantin juventusbenzemala ligaclb leicester cityMUman citymessi lionelsalahnapolineymarpsgronaldoserie atottenhamvalenciaAS ROMALeverkusenac milanmbappenapolinewcastleaston villaliverpoolfa cupreal madridpremier leagueAjaxbao bong da247EPLbarcelonabournemouthaff cupasean footballbên lề sân cỏbáo bóng đá mớibóng đá cúp thế giớitin bóng đá ViệtUEFAbáo bóng đá việt namHuyền thoại bóng đágiải ngoại hạng anhSeagametap chi bong da the gioitin bong da lutrận đấu hôm nayviệt nam bóng đátin nong bong daBóng đá nữthể thao 7m24h bóng đábóng đá hôm naythe thao ngoai hang anhtin nhanh bóng đáphòng thay đồ bóng đábóng đá phủikèo nhà cái onbetbóng đá lu 2thông tin phòng thay đồthe thao vuaapp đánh lô đềdudoanxosoxổ số giải đặc biệthôm nay xổ sốkèo đẹp hôm nayketquaxosokq xskqxsmnsoi cầu ba miềnsoi cau thong kesxkt hôm naythế giới xổ sốxổ số 24hxo.soxoso3mienxo so ba mienxoso dac bietxosodientoanxổ số dự đoánvé số chiều xổxoso ket quaxosokienthietxoso kq hôm nayxoso ktxổ số megaxổ số mới nhất hôm nayxoso truc tiepxoso ViệtSX3MIENxs dự đoánxs mien bac hom nayxs miên namxsmientrungxsmn thu 7con số may mắn hôm nayKQXS 3 miền Bắc Trung Nam Nhanhdự đoán xổ số 3 miềndò vé sốdu doan xo so hom nayket qua xo xoket qua xo so.vntrúng thưởng xo sokq xoso trực tiếpket qua xskqxs 247số miền nams0x0 mienbacxosobamien hôm naysố đẹp hôm naysố đẹp trực tuyếnnuôi số đẹpxo so hom quaxoso ketquaxstruc tiep hom nayxổ số kiến thiết trực tiếpxổ số kq hôm nayso xo kq trực tuyenkết quả xổ số miền bắc trực tiếpxo so miền namxổ số miền nam trực tiếptrực tiếp xổ số hôm nayket wa xsKQ XOSOxoso onlinexo so truc tiep hom nayxsttso mien bac trong ngàyKQXS3Msố so mien bacdu doan xo so onlinedu doan cau loxổ số kenokqxs vnKQXOSOKQXS hôm naytrực tiếp kết quả xổ số ba miềncap lo dep nhat hom naysoi cầu chuẩn hôm nayso ket qua xo soXem kết quả xổ số nhanh nhấtSX3MIENXSMB chủ nhậtKQXSMNkết quả mở giải trực tuyếnGiờ vàng chốt số OnlineĐánh Đề Con Gìdò số miền namdò vé số hôm nayso mo so debach thủ lô đẹp nhất hôm naycầu đề hôm naykết quả xổ số kiến thiết toàn quốccau dep 88xsmb rong bach kimket qua xs 2023dự đoán xổ số hàng ngàyBạch thủ đề miền BắcSoi Cầu MB thần tàisoi cau vip 247soi cầu tốtsoi cầu miễn phísoi cau mb vipxsmb hom nayxs vietlottxsmn hôm naycầu lô đẹpthống kê lô kép xổ số miền Bắcquay thử xsmnxổ số thần tàiQuay thử XSMTxổ số chiều nayxo so mien nam hom nayweb đánh lô đề trực tuyến uy tínKQXS hôm nayxsmb ngày hôm nayXSMT chủ nhậtxổ số Power 6/55KQXS A trúng roycao thủ chốt sốbảng xổ số đặc biệtsoi cầu 247 vipsoi cầu wap 666Soi cầu miễn phí 888 VIPSoi Cau Chuan MBđộc thủ desố miền bắcthần tài cho sốKết quả xổ số thần tàiXem trực tiếp xổ sốXIN SỐ THẦN TÀI THỔ ĐỊACầu lô số đẹplô đẹp vip 24hsoi cầu miễn phí 888xổ số kiến thiết chiều nayXSMN thứ 7 hàng tuầnKết quả Xổ số Hồ Chí Minhnhà cái xổ số Việt NamXổ Số Đại PhátXổ số mới nhất Hôm Nayso xo mb hom nayxxmb88quay thu mbXo so Minh ChinhXS Minh Ngọc trực tiếp hôm nayXSMN 88XSTDxs than taixổ số UY TIN NHẤTxs vietlott 88SOI CẦU SIÊU CHUẨNSoiCauVietlô đẹp hôm nay vipket qua so xo hom naykqxsmb 30 ngàydự đoán xổ số 3 miềnSoi cầu 3 càng chuẩn xácbạch thủ lônuoi lo chuanbắt lô chuẩn theo ngàykq xo-solô 3 càngnuôi lô đề siêu vipcầu Lô Xiên XSMBđề về bao nhiêuSoi cầu x3xổ số kiến thiết ngày hôm nayquay thử xsmttruc tiep kết quả sxmntrực tiếp miền bắckết quả xổ số chấm vnbảng xs đặc biệt năm 2023soi cau xsmbxổ số hà nội hôm naysxmtxsmt hôm nayxs truc tiep mbketqua xo so onlinekqxs onlinexo số hôm nayXS3MTin xs hôm nayxsmn thu2XSMN hom nayxổ số miền bắc trực tiếp hôm naySO XOxsmbsxmn hôm nay188betlink188 xo sosoi cầu vip 88lô tô việtsoi lô việtXS247xs ba miềnchốt lô đẹp nhất hôm naychốt số xsmbCHƠI LÔ TÔsoi cau mn hom naychốt lô chuẩndu doan sxmtdự đoán xổ số onlinerồng bạch kim chốt 3 càng miễn phí hôm naythống kê lô gan miền bắcdàn đề lôCầu Kèo Đặc Biệtchốt cầu may mắnkết quả xổ số miền bắc hômSoi cầu vàng 777thẻ bài onlinedu doan mn 888soi cầu miền nam vipsoi cầu mt vipdàn de hôm nay7 cao thủ chốt sốsoi cau mien phi 7777 cao thủ chốt số nức tiếng3 càng miền bắcrồng bạch kim 777dàn de bất bạion newsddxsmn188betw88w88789bettf88sin88suvipsunwintf88five8812betsv88vn88Top 10 nhà cái uy tínsky88iwinlucky88nhacaisin88oxbetm88vn88w88789betiwinf8betrio66rio66lucky88oxbetvn88188bet789betMay-88five88one88sin88bk88xbetoxbetMU88188BETSV88RIO66ONBET88188betM88M88SV88Jun-68Jun-88one88iwinv9betw388OXBETw388w388onbetonbetonbetonbet88onbet88onbet88onbet88onbetonbetonbetonbetqh88mu88Nhà cái uy tínpog79vp777vp777vipbetvipbetuk88uk88typhu88typhu88tk88tk88sm66sm66me88me888live8live8livesm66me88win798livesm66me88win79pog79pog79vp777vp777uk88uk88tk88tk88luck8luck8kingbet86kingbet86k188k188hr99hr99123b8xbetvnvipbetsv66zbettaisunwin-vntyphu88vn138vwinvwinvi68ee881xbetrio66zbetvn138i9betvipfi88clubcf68onbet88ee88typhu88onbetonbetkhuyenmai12bet-moblie12betmoblietaimienphi247vi68clupcf68clupvipbeti9betqh88onb123onbefsoi cầunổ hũbắn cáđá gàđá gàgame bàicasinosoi cầuxóc đĩagame bàigiải mã giấc mơbầu cuaslot gamecasinonổ hủdàn đềBắn cácasinodàn đềnổ hũtài xỉuslot gamecasinobắn cáđá gàgame bàithể thaogame bàisoi cầukqsssoi cầucờ tướngbắn cágame bàixóc đĩaAG百家乐AG百家乐AG真人AG真人爱游戏华体会华体会im体育kok体育开云体育开云体育开云体育乐鱼体育乐鱼体育欧宝体育ob体育亚博体育亚博体育亚博体育亚博体育亚博体育亚博体育开云体育开云体育棋牌棋牌沙巴体育买球平台新葡京娱乐开云体育mu88qh88
Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Maria in Vancouver

Lifestyle1 month ago

Becoming Your Best Version

By Matter Laurel-Zalko As a woman, I’m constantly evolving. I’m constantly changing towards my better version each year. Actually, I’m...

Lifestyle2 months ago

The True Power of Manifestation

I truly believe in the power of our imagination and that what we believe in our lives is an actual...

Maria in Vancouver3 months ago

DECORATE YOUR HOME 101

By Matte Laurel-Zalko Our home interiors are an insight into our brains and our hearts. It is our own collaboration...

Maria in Vancouver3 months ago

Guide to Planning a Wedding in 2 Months

By Matte Laurel-Zalko Are you recently engaged and find yourself in a bit of a pickle because you and your...

Maria in Vancouver3 months ago

Staying Cool and Stylish this Summer

By Matte Laurel-Zalko I couldn’t agree more when the great late Ella Fitzgerald sang “Summertime and the livin’ is easy.”...

Maria in Vancouver4 months ago

Ageing Gratefully and Joyfully

My 56th trip around the sun is just around the corner! Whew. Wow. Admittedly, I used to be afraid of...

Maria in Vancouver5 months ago

My Love Affair With Pearls

On March 18, 2023, my article, The Power of Pearls was published. In that article, I wrote about the history...

Maria in Vancouver5 months ago

7 Creative Ways to Propose!

Sometime in April 2022, my significant other gave me a heads up: he will be proposing to me on May...

Maria in Vancouver6 months ago

Why Eating Healthy Matters

We are what we eat, so don’t be fast, cheap, easy, or fake — we should take these words to...

Maria in Vancouver6 months ago

Maria Goes To Lapu Lapu Day Block Party!

On April 27, 2024, the Filipino community of Vancouver had its first Pinoy multi-Block Party in the most diverse neighbourhood,...