NCR Covid-19 cases remain in downward trend: OCTA

MANILA – The enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in the National Capital Region (NCR) is bearing fruit after a continuous downward trend of Covid-19 cases has been noted, reflecting a 46 percent decrease compared to its peak.

“Our trend in the NCR is still improving. What we’re seeing is that the average number of cases in the NCR is now around 3,000 per day, 5,500 ‘yung peak (during the peak) and down to 3,000 na tayo and hopefully still decreasing,” OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in a television interview Tuesday.

“Ang nakikita natin ay ‘yung effect ng ECQ and MECQ [modified ECQ] hanggang (What we see now is the effect of ECQ and MECQ until) April 30,” he said.

The NCR has the highest number of coronavirus cases. Latest data from the Department of Health as of May 3 show that the region has 27,647 active cases, followed by Region 4-A (Calabarzon) with 13,570.

Nationwide, David noted that the average number of cases now is less than 8,000 per day compared to 10,000 cases at its peak.

“Hindi ganun kabilis ang bagsak sa buong Pilipinas kasi may mga lungsod na may konting pagtaas tayo outside the bubble (Nationwide, the decrease is slower because there are some cities outside the bubble showing a slight increase in cases),” he said, referring to areas outside the so-called NCR Plus bubble consisting of Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Rizal and Laguna.

He added that the effect of the extended MECQ, which started on May 1, maybe visible by next week.

Even with the improving downward trend, David said some cities within the NCR show an “unstable” decrease of cases.

“Muntinlupa and Las Piñas, mababa ang decrease nila at ‘yung Valenzuela, flat ‘yung trend nila, Parañaque, Mandaluyong, mababa (Muntinlupa and Las Piñas have minimal decrease in cases and Valenzuela have a flat trend, Parañaque, Muntinlupa have low decreases),” he said.

Pateros and the cities of Manila, Navotas, Pasay show a huge drop in the number of Covid-19 cases.

“Manila, Navotas, Pasay, Pateros, malaki ang ibinaba simula nung surge, ‘yung iba diyan 75 percent ang nabawas sa cases compared noong peak ng surge (Manila, Navotas, Pasay, Pateros, their cases dropped tremendously since the surge, some of them have a 75-percent drop in their cases compared to the peak of case surge),” he added.

David said the OCTA Research might recommend the further easing of the community quarantine status next week when its effects start to show.

He reminded the public that easing of economic restrictions must be gradual and calibrated to avoid the ill effects of a possible sudden surge.