Ireland: Exit polls predict win for repealing abortion ban

The Irish Times and RTE television exit polls suggest the Irish people have voted to repeal a 1983 constitutional amendment (Shutterstock photo)

DUBLIN — Official counting is set to begin Saturday morning in Ireland’s historic abortion rights referendum, with two exit polls predicting an overwhelming victory for those seeking to end the country’s strict ban.

The Irish Times and RTE television exit polls suggest the Irish people have voted to repeal a 1983 constitutional amendment that requires authorities to treat a fetus and its mother as equals under the law. That effectively bans abortions, and currently, terminations are only allowed when a woman’s life is at risk.

The exit polls are predictions only, with official results expected to be announced Saturday afternoon. Paper ballots must be counted and tallied.

If the projected numbers hold up, the referendum would be a landmark in Irish women’s fight for abortion rights and a key turning point for a largely Catholic nation that has seen a wave of liberalization in recent years. It would also likely end the need for Irish women to travel abroad — mostly to neighbouring Britain — for abortions.

Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, who campaigned for repeal, did not claim victory based on the exit polls but seemed very confident late Friday night.

“Thank you to everyone who voted today. Democracy in action. It’s looking like we will make history tomorrow,” he said in a tweet after the exit polls were released.

Both exit polls project that the “yes” vote to repeal the ban to be nearly 70 per cent. They also suggest that supporters of more liberal abortion laws may have triumphed throughout the country, not just in the cosmopolitan capital, Dublin, where a strong youth vote had been anticipated.

The magnitude of the predicted victory exceeds the expectations of abortion rights activists, but prominent opponent of repeal Cora Sherlock said the exit polls, if accurate, “paint a very sad state of affairs.”

She said the “pro-life movement will rise to any challenge it faces” and resist what she called the trend toward abortion on demand.

If the “yes” forces seeking a constitutional change prevail, Ireland’s parliament will be charged with coming up with new abortion laws.

The government proposes to allow abortion in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy with later terminations allowed in some cases.

If confirmed by the official tally, the large margin of victory predicted by the exit polls would greatly strengthen the government’s hand when dealing with abortion opponents in parliament.