EDC: Quebec exports expected to surge this year and next

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MONTREAL – A new forecast by the Canadian government’s lending agency says Quebec’s highly diversified economy is on track for a 10 per cent increase in exports this year and eight per cent growth in 2016.

Export Development Canada says the continued growth is being led by strong international demand for aircraft and parts, which accounts for nearly 14 per cent of the total value of Quebec exports.

EDC says those exports are expected to rise 33 per cent this year and another 17 per cent in 2016.

Metals, ores and other industrial products make up the largest sector of Quebec exports are expected to rise five per cent this year and by six per cent growth next year.

But the EDC says within this sector, iron ore exports remain depressed as a result of continued price weaknesses and the closure of Cliffs Natural Resources’ Bloom Lake mine.

“Quebec has a very vibrant aircraft and parts sector – and not just the big companies such as Bombardier, CAE and Pratt & Whitney, but also the many smaller firms that supply them,” said EDC chief economist Peter Hall.

“Demand from around the world, including from emerging markets, has been very strong in 2015, and this will continue in 2016.”

The EDC also says strong U.S. housing starts are creating demand for lumber and this is helping to drive six per cent growth in exports by Quebec’s forestry sector in 2015 and four per cent growth in 2016.

The increase in lumber exports also helps to offset a decline in newsprint and pulp exports caused by non-tariff trade barriers in several countries and the closure of several Quebec mills.

“Quebec is one of Canada’s more diversified export economies, both in terms of what it sells and where it sells,” said Hall. “That said, most of the growth this year and next will come from the United States, where the economy is showing no signs of slowing down.”