Weather disturbance expected to enter PHL in next 24 hours — PAGASA

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MANILA — The weather disturbance outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) is expected to enter the country in the next 24 hours and has high chance of intensifying into a tropical cyclone , the state weather bureau said on Thursday.

In an interview, PAGASA weather forecaster Buddy Javier said that as of 4:00 p.m., the low pressure area (LPA) was estimated based on all available data at 1,700 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar (12.6ºN, 140.3ºE) and expected to enter the country by Friday.

Javier said that since it is in the sea, the LPA has high chance to intensify into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

Once it intensifies into a tropical cyclone inside the country, he said it will be locally named “Paeng,” the 16th tropical cyclone to enter the country this year.

He added they expect two to three tropical cyclones to enter for the month of November.

Javier said the LPA is not yet affecting the country but embedded in Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that will bring cloudy skies with light to moderate rainshowers and thunderstorms over the regions of Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, CARAGA, Davao, Central Visayas and the provinces of Leyte, Negros Occidental and Palawan.

On the other hand, he said the presence of strong northeast monsoon will bring cold weather with partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains over the regions of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos.

He added the rest of the country, including Metro Manila, will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

Javier said the agency already lifted the gale warning as surge of the northeast monsoon has weakened. With this, sea travel will be safer for fisherfolk and small seacraft.

In its 5:00 p.m. advisory, PAGASA said moderate to strong winds blowing from the northeast will prevail over Luzon and its coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the northeast to northwest with slight to moderate seas.